Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response

Normal distribution formula is very important to analyze the reciprocity between the random event probability and the events. There exists certain kind of reciprocity between random variable that conforms to normal distribution and its parameter. Solutions to apply normal distribution to the evaluation...

Discussing the technological innovation efficiency of big data enterprises and carrying out in-depth research on big data enterprises will help to accurately evaluate the development status of big data industry and guide the development of big data industry. This paper uses DEA-BCC model to evaluate...

To analyze the gap between the Baoji population’s climate change risk perception and the scientifically measured intensity, danger degree, vulnerability, and exposure of climate change risk based on the basic elements of risk assessment, this paper combines analytic hierarchy process and the Bayesian...

With the development of urbanization, the amount of municipal solid waste is increasing. Landfill is the main method for disposing the urban garbage at present in China. But the secure landfill site is not safe completely because it has a lot of risks threatening surrounding environment. After types...

The performance audit risk of rural pension fund is worth studying deeply. Based on the cost-benefit principle and the public fiduciary economic responsibility theory, this paper analyzes the current situation and causes of the performance audit of rural pension fund and finds that the audit demand degree...

The Sony PlayStation hacking crisis presents all too common personal data theft in the digital information age. The hacking necessitates the need for how such a crisis could be prevented in an attempt to safeguard customers’ personal information and ensure trust between client and vendor relationship....

Based on the construction of the nonlinear effect model of financial poverty alleviation, the paper used Granger causality test and regression analysis to analyze the relationship between financial development and poverty alleviation in Guizhou province. The results present that the relationship between...

Emergency management agencies will organize people to evacuee when disasters are forecasted. However, contradictions between individual behavior and group objective appear frequently during large-scale evacuations, the problem is obviously in the process of fisher boats evacuation. So, this paper set...

Using the synchronous data such as weather radar, oceanic WRF model etc., a severe convective weather process has been analyzed on August 31, 2015 in Bohai Sea area, China. The results show that the shear line moved eastward and enhanced at the 925hPa and 850hPa in Bohai Bay from 08:00 to 20:00, the...

In order to improve the community risk radar in the information gathering stage, the problem of unstructured information processing may be able to result by taking advantages of the internet of intelligence. According to the characteristics of the community risk events, setting the data form of the collecting...

To research the risk assessment method of coal-worker's pneumoconiosis caused by coal dust exposure, predict the incidence of coal-worker's pneumoconiosis, and provide technical basis for occupational risk management. Coal-workers of a coal transportation workshop of a heat power station were chosen...

The aim of this paper is to explore, empirically, the channels of crisis transmission with regard to the Global financial crisis. EMP-based crisis proxy is used for eight countries, which include Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Mexico and Russia. The period considered for estimation...

The problem of ecological environment is a global problem. It is a basic material condition for human beings to survive and engage in various production practices, and has a tremendous impact on our economic and social life and development. In recent years, the overall situation of the ecological environment...

The objective of this article is to evaluate the Gezi Park incident which started on 28 May 2013 and continued until the end of June in terms of crisis management. The reasons why a civil opposition act that started against the decision taken by the government regarding the environment transformed into...

In this paper, we deal with the subject of shipwreck removal and the methods that are employed during removal operations. We use a case study to illustrate the stages of these operations as well as the parameters that affect the process. Furthermore, we outline a number of different scenarios of the...

This paper explores the effect of geographical location on public risk perception of natural disasters. By conducting an identical questionnaire survey across three East Asia countries (China, Japan and South Korea), the paper finds out that different country has its unique structure of risk perception....

Life in modern society is increasingly connected by networks that link the world around us and create numerous exciting opportunities, new services and advantages for humanity. Yet concurrently, these underpinning networks have provided routes by which potentially dangerous and harmful incidents can...

In this paper, we for the first time propose an framework of intelligent mathematics, which consists of factor space, information diffusion, and internet of intelligences. This paper demonstrates how to use intelligent mathematics to describe earthquake risk perception. The concept of earthquake risk...

It has important practical and theoretical significance to study the coupling relationship and coordinated development between big data industry and financial agglomeration. This paper used 2015 cross-section data, the intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, the intuitionistic fuzzy number score...

The use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the construction industry is swiftly growing worldwide. UAVs are changing the way construction companies do business. Contractors are increasingly using camera-mounted UAVs to monitor the full range of activities. Rapid advances in camera, sensing, aeronautics,...

Vulnerability analysis is a key step of risk analysis of natural disaster. Based on information diffusion theory and incomplete information, it analyzes the changes of the affected population in urban flood and identifies the function relationship between the hazard (rainstorm) and disaster-bearing body...

Macro-anomalies are so complex that it is difficult to carry out the systematic quantitative analysis macro-anomalies because it is lack of measure space. It’s more difficult to find the relationship between micro-anomalies and earthquakes. In the paper, the theory system of macro-anomalies group’s measure...

Nepal is highly vulnerable to natural and human induced disasters. Complex geology, variable climatic conditions, active tectonic processes, rapid urbanization, unplanned settlements, lack of public awareness, increasing population, weak economic condition and low literacy rate have made her vulnerable...

Different from other natural disasters and health emergencies, nuclear accident is a kind of special crisis of organizational crises, which tends to generate public and media interests and criticism more easily. In this paper, we reviewed literatures on risk and crisis communication and analyzed the...

Based on the historical data of meteorological disasters in East China during 2004–2015, the overall characteristics, interannual variations and the hazards of meteorological disasters in different provinces of East China were analyzed. The results indicated that flood disaster (including landslide and...

When some parts of the world are still debating whether the public wearing masks will help prevent and control the COVID-19. We have used questionnaires to investigate the wearing of masks and its influencing factors among residents in 11 cities in Shanxi Province. The questionnaire was designed based...

The emergency rescue refers to all the artificial interventions that aim to reduce the occurrence of and damages by the emergencies directly or indirectly. Its role is to act immediately to prevent damage to life,property or environment. Emergency rescue is the critical and direct stage in the emergency...

n this paper, occupational chemical poisons’ physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models are established to simulate metabolic processes in vivo based on exposure simulation software- exposure related dose estimating model (ERDEM). PBPK model establishing progress is described based on the development...

Given that most of property insurance policies are one-year contracts and have a high renewal, this paper establishes Auto-regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) which considers adding lags of the dependent variable and/or lags of some independent variables. Based on the data of Insurance Premiums in...

Using the ultraviolet observation data of Huangshan Scenic area from March 2017 to February 2018, this paper analyzes the relationship between the daily, monthly and seasonal variation characteristics of ultraviolet radiation intensity and its related meteorological elements. The results show that the...

In hydrological statistics, the traditional assessment of goodness of fit test is interested in the testing precision to the sample generated from supposed PDF. However, the ability to reject the hypotheses when the supposed PDF is different from real PDF should be also emphasized. In addition, the sensitivity...

Confined space is a special working place. To ensure the safety, the forced ventilation must be carried out before entering the confined space. In this paper, ventilation process in municipal heating confine space is simulated by CFD numerical simulation method, and the distribution of temperature, oxygen...

In urban areas, people’s life may be threatened by disasters such as earthquakes. To reduce the life risks, efficient responses including evacuation are of critical importance. However, a drill evacuation appears impossible; simulation is thus used to examine the effectiveness of an evacuation plan....

Due to the long and narrow regional characteristics of Inner Mongolia, there are obvious climatic differences between the east and the west, and various meteorological factors have different influences on the development and utilization of solar energy. The abundance and stability index of solar energy...

It is known to us all that the excessive bubble in the real estate market can seriously affect the normal development of the national economy, which could cause the hidden dangers of financial crisis. In 2011, A wave of defaults destabilized markets across Wenzhou, which punctured the property price...

Nowadays, effective management of water withdraw, water consumption and wastewater discharge is desired for nuclear power plants in inland China. In this paper, the inland nuclear power industry and its policies in China were reviewed, a two-step water-management (TSWM) approach for the plants was proposed....

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Accurate prediction for hydrological time series is the precondition of water hazards prevention. A method of radial basis function network based on wavelet de-nosing (WD-RBF) was proposed according to the nonlinear problem and noise in hydrologic time series. Wavelet coefficients of each scale were...

Using the collective risk models of actuarial science, the Creditrisk+ is extended to the case of random number obligors. First, mathematical methods to compute the distribution of total loss are studied. Then, the mathematical results are applied and verified numerically. The insufficiency data in risk...

In this article, the aim is to analyse how the insemination of images of a cow is entangled with perceptions of gene technology through the ‘doing’ of risk, nature, periphery and gender in Sweden. Two types of data have been used; the 1996 Eurobarometer survey on public opinion and a corpus of articles...

Ecological agriculture is a major reform in the history of world agriculture. The study of ecological agriculture benefits is of great significance to the development of ecological agriculture. In this paper, by referring to the evaluation index system of ecological agriculture at home and abroad, and...

Based on daily precipitation data of 174 meteorological stations near civil airports in China, flight data over the same period (1994-2013) and other relevant airport data, this paper carries out a study on risk analysis of rainstorm at Chinese civil airports. We use the platform of ARCGIS, analyze the...

For acceptable risk and risk acceptance criteria, concepts and definition methods were proposed. Determination principles and application status including ALARP were investigated. Differences between long-distance oil/gas transportation pipeline and other industrial facilities in risk tendency, degree...

This paper chooses 198 listed companies in strategic emerging industries, using DEA model to study the efficiency of equity financing, and carries on efficiency analysis, investment redundancy and output shortage analysis and industry comparative analysis. The results show that the efficiency of equity...

This paper chooses 8 cities and counties of Bijie area as the research target. With the research foundation of natural disaster risk theory and drought risk formation principle, we start from dangerousness, exposure , vulnerability and the ability to prevent disaster to filter out 23 indexes range from...

The Monte Carlo method is used to simulate seismic sequences. For each earthquake in the sequence, the ground motion parameters of each site are calculated by the attenuation relationship, which is introduced into the vulnerability of the macroeconomic with GDP loss as an indicator. The model gives the...

A novel assessment method of emergency preparedness system vulnerability (EPSV) is established to evaluate the emergency system construction. The assessment index system and its complex network were constructed for EPSV. A simple weighted sum method was used to score the indices. And then the EPSV was...

With the continuous development of the social economy and the deepening of urbanization, large buildings are increasing, and disaster risks associated with large buildings, such as fire risks, are also increasing. Because of large buildings, such as shopping malls, business offices, transportation hubs...

As we all know, weather condition is constantly changing. Then, when an adverse weather event occurs during travelling period, path planning becomes a dynamic path optimization (DPO) problem. A common practice of DPO is to conduct real-time online path optimization based on the current weather condition....

Water resource is an important part of human living and production. With the modernization of cities, the problem of groundwater contamination is becoming more and more serious. It is outstanding to effectively assess the risk of groundwater contamination to human health. This paper proposes a human...

In this paper the system considered consists of two subsystems A and B. Subsystem A has only one unit whereas subsystem B consists of two homogeneous units B1 and B2. Here B2 is in hot standby with B1. In the present study we have incorporated two repairmen namely supervisor and novice to repair the...

Present risk assessment methods so far were majorly based on the primary knowledge and were incapable of combining uncertainty into risk assessment outputs. In order to solve this problem, a new methodology for risk assessment using constrained-random weight method and cloud model is introduced here...

Crop’s risk assessment induced by natural disasters needs to develop in the fine scale. It is required that risk assessment can be performed on county-level space scale and month-based time scale. But with the thinning of space and time scales, disaster samples would decline greatly and severely limit...

Prior research suggests that the current economic crisis has negative impacts on population mental health, while some studies show that the recession also causes positive effects. This paper aims to understand the individual, community and societal effects of the global financial crisis by examining...

To prevent and control the occupational noise hazard, procedures and methods of risk assessment and management of occupational noise hazard in the workplaces have been proposed as technical guidelines in the new standard “Risk Management Guidelines for Noise Occupational Disease Hazard” based on the...

Precipitation is the most important source of water supply, which has important significance on the vegetation growth, also is an important factor affecting the drought severity in Xilingol grassland. Based on the precipitation of 15 weather stations and MODIS MOD13A3 NDVI data, Pearson correlation analysis...

China suffers severe earthquake disasters. Earthquake insurance can effective transfer and disperse earthquake risk. This paper compared the keyword cluster and institution network of earthquake insurance, other catastrophe insurance and earthquake risk & loss. The keyword cluster showed that earthquake...

Aiming at the deteriorating variation trends and potential crisis of water resources in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin under Climate Change, from the view of risk analysis, a conceptual framework of tropical cyclone disaster risk is established, an assessment index system of water resources crisis risk...

Public risk perception is the basis for effective natural disaster risk communication, and the latter can strongly influence the former. Take typhoon disaster as an example, this paper constructs the theory model of 12 factors affecting risk perception from three dimensions by public individual characteristics,...

Although the safety records for Ship to Ship (STS) transfer operations reflect to safe procedures, nevertheless it remains a complex operation that needs special consideration due to the adverse consequences of a potential accident. The aim of this paper is to apply fuzzy inference system as a novel...

Firstly, this paper establishes the assessment indicator system for the earthquake prevention and disaster reduction capability of county-level administrative units in Gansu, and formulates three criteria, ten indicators and fifteen variables centered on one target. Then, the analytic hierarchy process...

This article takes an interest in evolving collaborative practices in crises caused by terrorism targeting rail-bound traffic. Sweden provides the empirical focus, by examining current preparedness processes, this article offers an important perspective on inter-organizational collaboration; that is,...

Disputes in construction projects are fairly common. They most often lead to increased costs, delays, and damaged business relationships. Disputes can also result in loss of reputation, personnel resources, and potential business opportunities. Previous studies have shown that the frequency of disputes...

Our study area is the Xilin River basin. Remote sensing approach was used to retrieve ecological water use by using MODIS images from Apr. to Sept. of 2000、2007、2010- 2014, and using auxiliary environmental data from the same time periods. The results showed the spatial distribution of ecological water...

In this paper, a new approach for contingency determination in a portfolio of construction projects is proposed. The model proposed helps an agency find the level of confidence needed for individual projects to ensure that the portfolio budget will meet the minimum level of confidence based on available...

Giant panda is the world-class precious endangered species, facing the canine distemper and other important infectious diseases on its wild and captive population of a serious threat. In this study, we used MaxEnt model and combined with ArcGIS analysis to predict the potential risk of canine distemper...

Urban flood risk assessment supported by accurate and precise modeling could make great contributions to urban flood management. In this paper, an urban drainage system model of Shijiazhuang city was built based on the MIKE21, MIKE URBAN and MIKE 11 modules in MIKE FLOOD platform in order to provide...

In order to provide the quantitative risk evaluation for 1,3-butadiene-expose, quantitative method using physiologically based pharmacokinetic model and dose-response model is applied to the carcinogenic risk evaluation for 1,3-butadiene-exposed workers. First, the internal dose of inhaled-1,3-butadiene...

The reasonable planning of emergency shelter in urban communities is one of the important means of disaster prevention. Using the improved Two-Step floating catchment area method and GIS, this paper analyzes the accessibility of emergency shelter in Yuexiu district under microcosmic perspective. The...

With the increasingly fierce competition in China's banking industry, the traditional deposit and loan business has been difficult to meet the needs of the development of banking business itself. Bill business as a new intermediary business has been a new point of profit growth for small and medium commercial...

The identification of the source of project risk has been a troubling issue in construction management. A new risk management model has been developed. Analysis of the risk in the IT industry, construction industry, and also industry structure and supply chain delivery has resulted in the identification...

Great earthquakes occurring in mountainous areas can trigger large-scale landslides, leading to serious geological disasters. Thus, in recent years, especially after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, much attention has been focused on the research about regional risk assessment of seismic landslides in China...

Using analytic hierarchy process and entropy method to determine the weight of index, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of risk assessment was constructed in this paper. Flood risk index and risk rating of area along the Yangtze River in Anhui province were drawn by using GIS spatial analysis technology....

In recent years, many cities of China suffered from urban waterlogging, therefore, prevention of urban waterlogging became one of the main targets of urban drainage. Based on the comprehensive plan of drainage and waterlogging Prevention of Shijiazhuang, this study introduced the relationship between...

Many construction projects involve repetitive operations that are exposed to various constraints and uncertainties.During construction field execution, schedulers must maintain and update look-ahead schedules, which coordinate work for the next several weeks based on the most recent productivity achieved....

In this paper, the runoff of Huayuankou and Lijin Hydrologic Stations of the downstream areas of the Yellow River from 1951 to 2012 were calculated and analyzed in order to explore the runoff variable characteristics and their response to climatic factors. The following conclusions can be drawn:(1)Annual...

With stakeholders seeking for reducing the uncertainties in construction projects, the application of risk management has gained increased interest over the past decades, with a particular emphasis on the risk management process. However, very little attention has been given to the framework that supports...

This article emphasizes the need for a fuzzy systematic structural approach to the risk assessment of construction projects and introduces the processes required to form a hierarchical systematic structure based on fuzzy logic using the Fuzzy Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (Fuzzy DEMATEL)...

The purpose of this study is to examine property owners’ attitudes regarding the impacts of climate and weather on property ownership and future property values in Currituck County, North Carolina, and determine whether their attitudes vary according to property owner groupings. The study profiles the...