Proceedings of the 7th Annual Meeting of Risk Analysis Council of China Association for Disaster Prevention

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155 articles
Proceedings Article

Spatial-temporal Pattern of Water requirement in Xiliaohe Watershed

Rui Wang, Jiquan Zhang, Feng Zhang, Enliang Guo, Meng Zhu, Danjun Li
Based on the climatic data from 23 meteorological stations throughout the Xiliaohe watershed during1961 and 2010, every month's spring maize water requirement are calculated by Penman-Monteith model, In addition, Spatial distribution of water requirement in Xiliaohe watershed can be analyzed using the...
Proceedings Article

The Validity of Behavior Against Drought Disaster of Farm Households in Yunnan Mountain--Based on Different Body Discriminant Angles

Min Tian, Yimeng Cheng, Jianlan Li, Shiliang Hu, Xinhui Xu
To analysis the efficient of farmer's disaster preparedness behaviors, we built and compared efficient index of two models. The one model's subject was experts and calculated by AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process), and another subject was farmers and processed by TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by...
Proceedings Article

Distribution and Ecological Risk Assessment of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in Agricultural Soil along Main Roadside in Changchun

Yanan Chen, Jiquan Zhang, Feng Zhang, Mo Zhou
Based on theanalysis of agriculturalsoil sampled along main roadside in Changchun. Get the pollution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soil, distribution feature of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in agricultural along main roadside in Changchun was investigated; Results showed that the...
Proceedings Article

Maize Drought and Flood Disaster Hazard Identification and Its Response to Climate Change in Jilin,China

Danjun Li, Jiquan Zhang, Enliang Guo, Rui Wang
Jilin province is an important corn Production base in China. Due to climate change caused by meteorological disasters has a great influence on maize yield. The drought and rain waterlogging are common meteorological disasters during maize growth period. Using the temperature and precipitation data during...
Proceedings Article

Research on Temporal and Spatial Dynamic of Maize Drought Using Remote Sensing: A Case on Shuanghe Farm of Beijing

Yunxiang Jin, Sijian Zhao, Wei Sun, Lei Xu, Qian Nie, Qiao Zhang
Drought, which is one of main meteorological disasters, always affects maize production. Remote sensing has become an important and effective technology for maize drought monitoring and assessment. In this paper, maize planting region in Shuanghe farm of Beijing was selected as study areas. We calculated...
Proceedings Article

Research on Vulnerability Curve of Waterlogging Disaster for Maize Based on CERES-Maize Model in the Midwest of Jilin Province

Guo Enliang, Jiquan Zhang, Yongfang Wang, Zhenhua Dong
Under the background of global warming, the loss caused by extreme precipitation is becoming more and more serious. As a bridge between risk and disaster losses, at present, research on vulnerability curve has become research focus in the field of disaster risk In this study, based on meteorological...
Proceedings Article

A Study on Recognition and Assessment of Agricultural Weather-related Disaster Risk

Zhao Sijian, Zhang Qiao, Nie Qian
In this article, crop's weather-related disaster risk would be recognized and assessed on the basis of time-serial yield data and time-serial weather data, using maize in Xiao County and rice in Lai'an County, that are located in Anhui Province, as a case study. In general, a weather-related disaster...
Proceedings Article

Spatial-temporal Distribution and Risk Analysis of Terrorist Attack Fires

Guohui Li, Cheng Wang, Lizeng Zhao, Weiping Han, Ying Wang
The word focused on the terrorist attack fires (TAFs). The frequency-fatality distribution and the spatial-temporal evolution of TAFs under the influence of targets, regions, and years were investigated. The power low and scale invariance theory was used to identify the distribution and evolution of...
Proceedings Article

Emergency Disposal Strategy of Fire Fighting Forces Dealing with Dangerous Chemicals Disaster Accident under the Background of Terrorism

Peng Zhang, Liwen Liu, Jingyuan Wang, Xiaoqian Zhang
In recent years, under the threat of the occurrence of terrorist incidents and the "three forces" in our country, fire fighting forces need to handling with the possible leakage and explosion in the production, storage, transportation of dangerous chemicals due to various reasons such as disaster accident...
Proceedings Article

Life Water Demand Prediction and Water Security for West Liaohe River

Danjun Li, Xingpeng Liu, Jiquan Zhang, Feng Zhang
Scientific and reasonable prediction is conducive to the rational allocation of water resources,using 2008-2013 statistical yearbook data to calculate life water consumption, with the help of gray prediction GM (1, 1) model the water demand is simulated, the error between actual water consumption and...
Proceedings Article

Financing Risks in the Development of Urbanization in China -- Based on the Perspective of Rural Land Property Right Mortgage Financing

Jiao Yin, Hongmei Zhang
At present, China's urbanization is in a stage of rapid development. In the promotion of urbanization development and the integration of urban and rural areas, it's becoming crucial to solve the problems of the rural finance. As a new way of financing, the land finance has caused widespread attention....
Proceedings Article

Development of and Risk Analysis on Regional Construction-purposed Sea Use

Shufen Liu, Jingyi Zhang, Wei Xu
Regarding regional construction-purposed sea use in China, this paper introduces its status quo from such three aspects as sea use management system, regional distribution and annual changes; analyzes its risk factors and genesis from such three aspects as nature, society and management; presents the...
Proceedings Article

The Identification and Prevention of the Risk from EPC Project Owner

Hui Gao, Xiuhao Ding
As EPC mode is widely used in the large engineering projects and the engineering general contracting market competition is increasingly fierce, contract with own capital and party a-supplied materials has become the important characteristic of EPC project. From the perspective of general contractor,...
Proceedings Article

The Seismic Hazard Estimate of the Manila Trench Subduction Zone based on the Generalized Pareto Distribution

Jianwei Tian, Zhe Liu, Luchuan Ren
The Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) is a distribution model of the generalized extreme value theory. The author choose the Manila trench subduction zone as a potential source area, to establish its seismic hazard estimation model based on the Generalized Pareto Distribution, by fitting magnitude...
Proceedings Article

Dynamic Risk Analysis on City Waterlogging Disaster Based on Scenario Simulation

Xilei Pang, Chongfu Huang, Yingju Zhang
In the view of systematicness and uncertainty of disaster risk, the paper firstly adopts parameter estimation statistical algorithm, information diffusion model and geographic information space analysis technology to analyze hazard occurrence possibility, affected population vulnerability and rainstorm...
Proceedings Article

Temporal dynamics of vegetation NDVI and its response to drought in Songnen grassland

Qiyun Ma, Jiquan Zhang, Siqin Tong, Zhenhua Dong, Xuehai Nie, Yanan Chen
Based on daily data recorded in 13 weather stations in Songnen grassland over the period 1982 - 2013, temporal variations in drought were investigated using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and characteristics in NDVI were also analyzed using a time series data set of GIMMS...
Proceedings Article

Vegetation NPP Changes in Horqin Sandy Land During 2000-2013

Yinshan Yinshan, Suriguga Bao, Yuhai Bao
Using remote sensing data and ground meteorological station data, we estimated NPP of vegetation during the growing season from 2000 to 2013 in Horqin sandy land under the support of remote sensing and GIS Technology. We analyzed the relations between the annual NPP with climate factors and human activities....
Proceedings Article

Study on the Spatial-Temporal Coupling Relationship between Economic Development and Industrial Water Use in West Liaohe River Basin

Pengda Lin, Zhijun Tong, Jiquan Zhang, Zhenhua Dong, Xiangqian Li
Based on the center-of-gravity model and GIS, a measure of the spatial coupling of economic and industrial water use was obtained. Researching the trajectories, evolution and common characteristics the center-of-gravity of economic and industrial water use of 10 fourF F drainage from 2004 to 2013 in...
Proceedings Article

The Research of the Interactive Relationship Based on the VAR Model between the Prices of Pork, Soybeans and Corn

Siyu Mo, Wen Han
The research of the interactive relationship based on the VAR model between the prices of pork, soybeans and corn in Guizhou, provides reasonable reference to make effective policy of adjusting pork price regularly, and establish the necessary warning system for the production of the pigs. The article...
Proceedings Article

Credit Index Research of Chinese Medicine Market ---Take a Chinese Medicine Market in Chengdu for Example

Binbin Yang, Zongfang Zhou
Drug is a top priority in the people's livelihood and health care.As an important component in our country's drugs work,Chinese medicine industry have resulted in a lot of achievements after 20 years of development. However,there are serious information asymmetry problems in Chinese medicine professional...
Proceedings Article

Progress on the Pest Risk Analysis of China

Jianwei Li, Xiaoyan Zhang, Yibing Liang, Hao Wu
In this paper, a comprehensive review of the entry pest risk analysis of China was conducted on five aspects, such as legal framework, organization structure and management procedures, technical methods, information management, and application of risk analysis. It can be concluded that the pest risk...
Proceedings Article

System design of loss fast evaluation for grassland drought disaster based on RS, GIS and GPS

Qiyun Ma, Jiquan Zhang, Rui Wang, Si Ha, Meng Zhu, Danjun Li
Loss fast evaluation for grassland drought disaster is an important content of grassland natural disaster research. The basic situation and damage of grassland drought disaster in china were introduced in this paper. On that basis, the goal about loss fast evaluation for grassland drought disaster was...
Proceedings Article

Study on Emergency Management System of Dangerous Chemicals Accidents based on the Dynamic Risk

Xuanya Liu, Jingjing Li, Ning Zhou
According to the characteristics and evolution law of dangerous chemicals accidents, based on disaster accident emergency handling requirements, the research on dynamic risk analysis and prediction technology system of dangerous chemicals accidents were carried out based on real-time dynamic information...
Proceedings Article

Analysis of Drought Characteristic in Sunit Prairie Based on Precipitation Anomaly Percentage during 2000-2015

Xiaodong Sun, Guixiang Liu, Yuhai Bao, Xiaode Zhang
According to the monthly precipitation data collected from three meteorological stations in Xilingol League from 2000 to 2015, annual and seasonal drought features in Sunit prairie for 16 years were detailed analysis by using precipitation anomaly percentage from the drought frequency and the changing...
Proceedings Article

Risk Analysis of Water Masses Degeneration in the Northern Gulf

Ye Yuan, Peinan Zheng, Zhouwen Xiao, Zhicheng Mao
Through the analysis of historical data show that climate change and precipitation is the basic reason of Northern Gulf water properties. Analysis of temperature and salinity in the East and west of the Straits of the Joan Strait shows that the northern Bay maintains the characteristics of temperature...
Proceedings Article

Spatiotemporal Variations of Drought in Inner Mongolia over the Past 50 years Based on SPEI

Siqin Tong, Jiquan Zhang, Quan Lai, Rina Wu
The Standardized Precipitation Evapotran- spiration Index (SPEI) was used as the indicator of drought, calculating the monthly precipitation and monthly mean temperature among the 109 weather stations in Inner Mongolia from 1961 to 2010 to obtain the SPEI value of each site at the time scale of 12 month....
Proceedings Article

Evolvement Characters of Aeolian Desertification of Horqin Sandy Land in the Past 34 Years-A Case Study of Naiman Banner

Yongfang Wang, Jiquan Zhang, Enliang Guo, Zhenhua Dong
We interpreted of Landsat TM remote sensing images of 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2013 of Naiman Banner and obtained the different degrees of desertified land area in different times. The results show that the aeolian desertification in Naiman Banner experienced a process of reversion, development and reversion...
Proceedings Article

Research on Desertification Information Translation and Dynamic Change: A Case of Xilinguole League

Chunlan Li, Richa Hu, Shan Yin, Ren Bu, Yuhai Bao, Yuwei Li, A. Latengtuya, Huijuan Bao
In this study, remote sensing and 3S technology, combination of field investigation and field recording were used to extract the information of desertification and analyze the dynamic changes of land desertification in Xilinguole League, trying to find out the characteristic desertification change of...
Proceedings Article

Remote Sensing Monitoring of Soil Moisture Content in Xilin River Basin

Hongbo Yu, Qiaofeng Zhang
The study area is the Xilin River basin. Remote sensing approach was used to retrieve soil moisture content based on the surface water capacity index by using MODIS images from July 2000 to July 2012. This can reflect the scope, extent and development of the drought in the study area in a timely and...
Proceedings Article

Effects of Land Use Change on Vegetation Coverage of Typical Steppe Region - Case in Xilin Gol Grassland

Daoriao Daoriao, Jincai Xu, Yinshan Yinshan, Suriguga Bao
In this paper, 2000 - NDVI data 2014 Xilingol Grassland normalized difference vegetation index and land use Xilingol data, with the support of ENVI and Arcgis software, spatial and temporal variation in NDVI, analyzes Xilingol grassland vegetation cover condition the overall variation between distribution...
Proceedings Article

Analysis of Spatiotemporal Distribution and Influencing Factors of Grassland Fire in China-Mongolia Border Regions in Recent 15 Years

Yulong Bao, Lina Yinshan
In view of the grassland fire occurred in 3 banner of East Ujimqin banner in China and adjacent Mongolia as research area, the spatiotemporal characteristics was analyzed by GIS space analysis method and using the 2000-2014 MCD45A burned products,MOD13Q1 products data and meteorological data.The results...
Proceedings Article

Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Dust Storm in Inner Mongolia in Recent 30 Years

Terigele Terigele, YongMei YongMei, YinShan YinShan
In this study, using the technology of statistical and geographic information system as the main research methods study characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution of Sandstorm in Inner Mongolia, by analyzing from the characteristics of a wide range of dust weather and through on a longer time...
Proceedings Article

Temporal and Spatial Variation of Vegetation Analysis Based on MOD13 in Mu Us Sandy Land from 2000 to 2015

Ge Qiu, Yuilong Bao, Yuihai Bao, Jiabin Wu
To comprehend the variation of vegetation in Mu Us sandy land, the research use Mu Us sandy land as research area and make Uxin Qi(county) as a sample to anticipate the vegetation index variation on different land-use type. 365 images of Mod13 product are basic data which from 2000 to2015 and the spatial...
Proceedings Article

Characteristics of Vibration of Reinforced Concrete Buildings of Different Ages

Gegentana Gegentana, Narenmandula Narenmandula, Hongge Wang, Jianzhong Bao, Fengxiang Li, Hiroshi Kawase, Youyichi Matushima
In order to determine the vibration characteristics of reinforced concrete buildings of different ages, shapes similar to Hohhot, the same height reinforced concrete building built in different years as the research object, the use of micro-observation methods often mastered the natural cycle of the...
Proceedings Article

Change of Desertification based on MODIS Data in the Mongolia Border Region

Rula Sa, Shan Yin, Yuhai Bao, Huijuan Bao
In order to analyze the changes of desertification in Mongolia border region, this paper took the Dongwuzhumuqin and Halahahe as the research area, based on 2000-2015 years Vegetation growth season MODIS NDVI data, the vegetation coverage was calculated by using pixel two model, desertification index...
Proceedings Article

Drought Temporal Variation Characteristics Analysis based on the PDSI Data in Mongolian Plateau

Narisu Narisu, Yuhai Bao, Bao Yushan
According to Mongolian Plateau more droughts, serious hazards, selected 1980-2013 Mongolia Plateau 101 meteorological stations of month precipitation, annual temperature meteorological data, based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) on the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of drought...
Proceedings Article

Spatial-temporal Evolution of Desertification and Landscape Pattern Change in Hulunbeier Sandy Land

Narisu Narisu, Yinshan Yinshan, Yushan Yushan, Yuhai Bao, Lina Lina, Baocheng Wei
Based on the TM and ETM+ Lands at image data of 2000-2014, using the GIS spatial analysis method and visual interpretation methods, we extract the dynamic desertification information of Hulunbeier sand land. The spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of landscape pattern are analyzed on the foundation...
Proceedings Article

Internal ligament of conservation medicine: Big data

Xiaolong Wang
Conservation medicine is an emerging interdisciplinary, taking the common health of human-animal-environment as its purpose. But since its come into being, the realistic vector of the epistemology of conservation medicine risk analysis, the approach of depth fusion for related disciplines and other key...
Proceedings Article

Impacts of Land Use Change on Net Primary Productivity in Fenhe River Basin

Jin Duan, Yaolong Liu, Yamin Jia
With the enhancement ofÿthe evolution of the natural environmentÿand of the human activitiesÿonÿnatural ecosystems,ÿland use and land cover change (LUCC)ÿhas become an important factorÿaffecting the ecosystem and environment. Study on land useÿand landÿcover change (LUCC) and itsÿimpact on the ecosystem...
Proceedings Article

Research of Enterprise Knowledge Absorption Strategy Based on Big Data Platform

Jianchun Yang, Ruo Shi
With the coming of the Big Data period, it is crucial for business to deal with customer data. First, we analyze the characteristics of customer dada: volume and diversity. Then, we disucss the challange business faced with in organization management practice. Bsed on this, we put forward three strategies...
Proceedings Article

Research on remote monitoring and control of big data platform based on Internet of things

Jianmiao Zhu, Yunzhong Fang, Chenghang Jiang, Shiyuan HU
In order to give full play of big data on the safety production monitoring, To carry out the research on Hazard source safety monitoring service platform based on Internet of things. The platform based on the classification of major hazard sources, Safety parameter monitoring and control technology,...
Proceedings Article

A Preliminary Exploration on Internet of Intelligences Based on Cloud Computing

Yannan Sun, Chongfu Huang
In order to use advantage of cloud computing (CC) to improve Internet of intelligences (IOI), in this paper we suggest the concept of Internet of intelligences based on CC, and preliminarily discuss automatic configuration management of information resources in IOI. A sharp distinction between the current...
Proceedings Article

Theoretical Discussion of Internet of Intelligences Realize Decentralization of Information Collection in Risk Assessment

Wu Su, Chongfu Huang
The Internet has changed the traditional information dissemination way. Decentralization provides a convenient and efficient way for ordinary people to publish information, sources of information has been widened, touches all aspects of society. In a sense, risk assessment is to collect and process information....
Proceedings Article

A Tentative Exploration of Structuring Information in Community Emergency Management Risk Radar by Presetting Forms

Yifang Leng, Chongfu Huang
this paper proposed a method to help transform the unstructured data of community emergency management risk radar, by understanding the risk awareness and expression habit of community residents, a series of forms can be developed to summarize the problem, them the Multiple Internet of Intelligences...
Proceedings Article

A Platform of Risk Analysis and Early-warning for Urban Road Waterlogging Problem Based on IOI Technology

Fanlei Zeng, Jianwei Liu, Chongfu Huang
Urban waterlogging, which impact traffic and residents directly, is influenced both by meteorological and urban drainage capacity. Urban waterlogging problem is also a complex issue involving meteorological department, the municipal sector, the transport sector and the general public, which may be solved...
Proceedings Article

Demand Setting in Internet of Intelligences based on the Factor Vine

Jun Guo, Chongfu Huang, Peizhuang Wang
In this paper, the factor space theory is introduced to Internet of Intelligences (IOI). The factor vine is used as the theoretical basis for the demand setting in IOI so that the clients could clearly express their problems and the agents could provide effective information. In this way, the operation...
Proceedings Article

A Study on Forming a Consensus Measure Space of Macro-seismic Anomalies

Weidan Wang, Chongfu Huang
Besides a simple list, the current studies of macro-seismic anomalies are mostly statistical analysis based on single kind of anomaly or several seismic data. Lack of the support of measure space to synthesize macro-seismic anomalies, it is difficult to carry out systematic scientific research. This...
Proceedings Article

Study on the Integrated Risk Radar Model in Natural Scenic Areas

Junxiang Zhang, Chongfu Huang, Shanfeng Hu
Facing the severe challenges of disaster risk management and the continuous improvement of the quality requirements of tourists in natural scenic areas, the construction of Smart Disaster Prevention in scenic areas has become a very important and urgent work. Integrated risk radar has the role of discovery,...
Proceedings Article

Study on Risk Communication Model of Stakeholders in the Flood Control of River Basin Based on the IOI Technology

Yi Liang, Chongfu Huang
Risk communication is one of the important risk management tools for stakeholders to achieve consensus. In the flood disaster risk governance, effective risk communication between the stakeholders of the flood control on basin reservoirs is an important way when flood could not avoid. Aiming at the shortage...
Proceedings Article

Simulation Research of Evolutionary Game to Bank and Technological SME under the Pledge Financing Mode

Huafeng Chen, Mu Zhang
In this paper, Matlab is used to simulation research based on evolutionary game mode of technological SME and bank under the pledge of intellectual Property financing. The evolutionary game results are analyzed to 3 different evolutionary strategies. Game strategies are not converged to a stable value...
Proceedings Article

A Method for Debris Flow Management Based on Numerical Simulation

Jun Wang, Qinghua Gong, Haixian Xiong, Xiaoling Yin, Shun Yang
Debris flow disasters are usually accompanied by serious losses of lives and properties. As one of the important and effective means of disaster non-engineering mitigation measures, disaster management is extremely important for disaster mitigation and sustainable development of economy and society....
Proceedings Article

Forest Fire Risk Assessment Based on Ecological and Economic Value - Take Yunnan Province as an Example

Chenxue Gao, Ming Wang
Taking ecological and economic value of forest into consideration during forest fire risk assessment could provide a scientific reference for integrated risk governance. Machine learning was combined with event simulation to implement fire risk assessment based on ecological and economic value of Yunnan...
Proceedings Article

The Design and Application of Public Security Risk Register in Beijing City Community

Hui Lyu, Xin Bai
Community is the cell of city. Community risk is an important breeding ground and management object for the whole city and social safety. The community risk register provides a framework and system to check risk information. In this paper, based on the risk register concepts, processes, research progress...
Proceedings Article

Case Analysis on Risk Management Process in Public Safety of Grassroots Organization Based on ISO 31000

Wei Zhu, Yafei Wang, Yingnan Ma, Hui Lv
In view of the lack of specific implementation details of the ISO31000 risk management process, the present paper carries out a case study of the ISO31000 standard in the implementation of the public security risk management process. The paper expounds the every stage of the risk management process and...
Proceedings Article

Value at Risk for Gold Spot Based on Quantile-GARCH Model

Li Li, Lei Xiao
With the rapid development of gold spot market, the value at risk of gold spot took attention of market participants. Spot gold trading time series data show the peak, fat tail and clustering properties. In this paper, a new kind of Quantile-GARCH Model was introduced and used to measure the value at...