Proceedings of the 7th Annual Meeting of Risk Analysis Council of China Association for Disaster Prevention

Session: The theory and methodology on risk analysis

20 articles
Proceedings Article

Statistical Significance of Typhoon Risk and Calculation of the Risk per Year

Chongfu Huang
The risks in terms of statistical significance refer to ones that could be analyzed by using random samples. The typhoon risk in statistics is the average loss caused by typhoons. The risk per year calculated with a stochastic process has more clear physical meaning. Monte Carlo method can not improve...
Proceedings Article

Research on the Mutation Mechanism of Victim's Psychology and Behavior after Natural Disaster Based on Catastrophe Theory

Weiwei Zhang, Xuanhua Xu, Bin Pan
Aiming at the problem of victim's rational and irrational behavior during recovery stage in natural disaster, this paper analyzed the victim's psychological and behavioral characteristics and influencing factors during recovery stage based on lots of literatures and an interview with victims. Besides,...
Proceedings Article

Comparative Study on Risk Assessment System of New Chemical Materials of China and European Union

Lang Huang, Chao Wu
In order to enrich the risk assessment system of new chemical materials of China, a comparative study on risk assessment system of new materials of China and EU was made. Firstly, the comparative study steps were put forward based on the paradigm system of comparative safety science. Then, the development...
Proceedings Article

Influence and Risk Assessment of Climate Change in Airport of China based on Hesistant Analytic Hierarchy Process and TOPSIS

Chenyang Song, Ren Zhang, Taiping Hou, Chengzu Bai, Kefeng Liu, Qiang Long
The risks of climate change in six major airports in China's coastal areas.
Proceedings Article

The Weight Analysis of Northeast Passage Straits Index Based on AHP and Rough Set Theory

Zhe Wang, Shanshan Ge, Ren Zhang, Mengqian Yang, Deliang Jiang
The index weight of the reasonable is the basis of objective and quantitative assessment of the risk. Taking a sample of the Northeast Passage Vilkitsky Strait, using the combination of subjectively and objectively, realize the complementary advantages of two ways, to establish the northeast passage...
Proceedings Article

Risk Assessment Method of Coastal Erosion Disasters

Shiyong Wen, Fengshou Zhang, Xiang Wang, Xinxin Wang, Fei Li, Fei Wang, Ning Gao, Xuegong Xu
Coastal erosion disaster is one of marine disasters. Coastal erosion disasters caused large areas of land loss, destroyed coastal ecological environment system, and seriously affect the sustainable development of social economy in coastal areas. To effectively cope with the coastal erosion disasters...
Proceedings Article

Assessment of West Liaohe River Basin's Ecological Vulnerability and Temporal-Spatial Distribution based on Landscape Pattern

Feng Zhang, Jiquan Zhang, Yanan Chen, Qiyun Ma, Enliang Guo, Yongfang Wang
West Liaohe River Basin, which is known as a typical ecological vulnerable district of Northeast China, is taken as a case study in this paper. By collecting 3 period Landsat TM image of 1992,2002 and 2012, the landscape pattern figure is interpreted. Landscape sensitivity index and landscape adaptability...
Proceedings Article

Research on Vulnerability Curve of Grassland Snow Disaster of Livestock on Historical Disaster Data in Xilingol

Si Ha, Jiquan Zhang, Zhenhua Dong, Xiangqian Li, Enliang Guo
Natural disaster risk is the possibility of disaster losses, depending on hazard, vulnerability, exposure, and emergency response and recovery capability. Vulnerability is to measure the degree of hazard bearing body when suffered damage, which is not only an important part of risk assessment for loss...
Proceedings Article

Study on Influence Factors of Regional Flood Disaster Resilience Based on DEMATEL-ANP

Xianfu Cheng, Honghu Sun
The influence degree and causal relationship between the recognition factors are significant to the analysis of the key influencing factors of flood disaster resilience. Influencing factors of regional flood disaster resilience are selected from the five dimensions of nature, society, economy, technology...
Proceedings Article

The Generalized Extreme Value Model for Seismic Hazard Estimation of Potential Source Area based on Maximum Information Entropy Principle

Luchuan Ren, Zhe Liu, Jianwei Tian
The author proposes a method to establish the generalized extreme value model for strong earthquake hazard estimation of a potential source area, based on the maximum information entropy principle and corresponding constraint conditions, and then selects the Ryukyu trench subduction zone as a potential...
Proceedings Article

Evaluation of Flood Vulnerability of Typical Regions at Dongting Lake Area in China Based on Multi-source Information Digging and Fusion

Dehua Mao, Jinli Wang, Xiaohong Fu, Jinhui Li
The flood vulnerability comprehensive evaluation model was established through interpreting the remote sensing image data in 1987, 1998 and 2008 by means of ENVI4.8 and GIS, the collection and analysis to the historical disaster maps and statistical yearbook data of the flood disaster of Dongting Lake...
Proceedings Article

Study on hazard factor assessment caused by snow disaster in pastoral areas of Inner Mongolia grassland based on Multi-source Remote Sensing Data

Chula Sa, Guixiang Liu, Mulan Wang, Yuhai Bao
The daily snow depth time series data set from passive microwave remote sensing(1978-2012) were used in this paper. Establishment of snow cover index to evaluate the risk factors of disaster.The areas with highest risk of snow disaster happened were mainly distributed in northeast of Dongwuzhumuqin banner,...
Proceedings Article

Assessment of Water Resources Security in Semi Arid Area based on GIS-A Case Study in Naiman County, Inner Mongolia

Xiangqian Li, Zhijun Tong, Zhenhua Dong, Si Ha, Feng Zhang, Pengda Lin
As basic production and living materials, water resources is essential for social-economic development, and is increasingly becoming the limiting factor of regional economic sustainable development. Naiman County is located in the south edge of Horqin sandy land, which faces great challenge of water...
Proceedings Article

Risk Identification Model Based on System Theory and Its Implementation Technical Analysis

Hubo Zhang, Tiezhong Liu
In view of the interactive and systematic problems of accident caused by high technology, the method of risk identification in the perspective of system theory is studied. We analyze the Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Process (STAMP) and the basic steps of Hazard Analysis Technology (STPA) based...
Proceedings Article

The Review of Methods for Debris Flow Hazard Assessment

Hui Gao, Jifu Liu
China is one of the countries which are suffering the most serious debris flows. The social life and economy in the mountain area are suffering a lot from them. With the frequency of debris flow increases in recent years, the threat to human life and property is bigger and bigger. Especially the seismic...
Proceedings Article

Ecological Risk Assessment and its Spatiotemporal Variations of Northeast China based on Landscape Pattern

Lina Lina, Yulong Bao, Yinshan Yinshan, Chunsheng Mu, Yuhai Bao
The analysis of landscape ecological risk in Northeast China has important guiding significance for the establishment of regional ecological early warning mechanism, the promotion of regional ecological environmental protection and environmental management and social and economic development. Northeast...
Proceedings Article

Ecological Risk Assessment of HuBaoE Area in Inner Mongolia based on Ecological Footprint Analyses

Jianghong Zhen
Based on the theory, method and model of ecological footprint, this paper measured and analyzed the ecological footprint, ecological carrying capacity, ecological deficit, ecological pressure index and ecological risk degree in Huhhot, Baotou and Erdos from 1990 to 2010. The results show: (1) The per...
Proceedings Article

On the Risk Assessment of Storm Surge Disasters in the Coastal Areas of Qingdao

Song Gao, Shan Zhong, Xihu Lian, Lingjuan Wu, Tao Bai, Yaru Li
Based on the regional disaster system theory, the risk and vulnerability of storm surges in the coastal areas of Qingdao are assessed quantitatively and qualitatively respectively, and a risk index system of storm surge disasters in coastal areas of Qingdao is constructed in this paper. A storm surge...
Proceedings Article

On the Hazard Identification Method of Plastic Toys

Xia Liu, Bisong Liu, Qian Wu, Ya Li
Safety of plastics toys has been paid more and more attention. Risk identification of plastic toy in product life cycle, has important effect on promoting the safety of the products. A comprehensive list is established during the design stage.During the manufacturing process, safety check list is used....
Proceedings Article

The Risk Assessment of the Economic Interests of the Arctic and the Political Power Game Based on the Cloud Model

Mengqian Yang, Shanshan Ge, Ren Zhang, Zhe Wang, Deliang Jiang
As a result of climate warming, the ice and snow of the Arctic melt, which makes the possibility of the opening of the Arctic waterway increases, the Arctic region of energy exploitation's difficulty reduce, and the strategic position of the arctic improve. Because of the natural geographical advantages,...