Proceedings of the 7th Annual Meeting of Risk Analysis Council of China Association for Disaster Prevention

Session: Risk analysis and emergency management of natural disasters

36 articles
Proceedings Article

Risk Analysis of Mongolian Erannis Jacobsoni Djak's Invasion into the Inner Mongolia Area

Xiaojun Huang, Yuhai Bao, Altanchimeg D., Ren Bu, Miao Fu, Mei Yong
Erannis jacobsoni Djak is the most important forest pest in Mongolia and has seriously destructive effect to forest ecological system. It is important to study the invasion risk of Inner Mongolia, which is of great significance for the effective prevention of cross-border disaster. Based on it, firstly,...
Proceedings Article

Early Warnings and Benefits Assessment for Disastrous Weathers during 2012 Typhoon

Yanjun Zhou, Sha Wang
The Typhoon Damrey, which was entering the Bohai Sea area of Qinghuangdao in 2012, is analyzed comprehensively and evaluated for services using the data from FY-2E Infrared, radar, Micaps 3.1 system, insular stations, buoys, and numerical products, and synchronously comparing between disasters report,...
Proceedings Article

The Monitoring of a Severe Convective Case in Bohai Sea Area on August 31,2015

Yanjiang Li, Yanjun Zhou
using the synchronous data such as weather radar, oceanic WRF model etc., a severe convective weather process has been analyzed on August 31, 2015 in Bohai Sea area,the results show that the shear line moved eastward and enhanced at the 925hPa and 850hPa in Bohai Bay from 08:00 to 20:00,the index K was...
Proceedings Article

Forecast and Disaster Cause Analysis of Tropical Storm Damrey into the Gulf of Bohai

Zhiming Yu, Siyao Wang, Xiaodong Zhang
Based on the data of FY-2E infrared cloud image, radar, micaps3.1, island observation station, large buoy, and numerical weather forecasting products, effects of tropical storm Damrey in 2012 on Tangshan were analyzed, forecast and disaster cause of tropical storm Damrey were also analyzed. The results...
Proceedings Article

Assessment of Rainstorm Disaster-causing Force of Flood Risk in Central and Eastern China

Dapeng Huang, Lei Zhang
Using the 1961-2008 daily precipitation data from 300 meteorological stations in central and eastern China, seven rainstorm factors were selected to construct a synthesis indicator of rainstorm disaster-causing force by principal component analysis according to the principle that rainstorm disaster-causing...
Proceedings Article

Lessons of mitigation from a low frequency debris flow event

Yongbo Tie, Jintao Jiang
The risks in terms of statistical significance refer to ones that could be analyzed by using random samples. The typhoon risk in statistics is the average loss caused by typhoons. The risk per year calculated with a stochastic process has more clear physical meaning. Monte Carlo method can not improve...
Proceedings Article

Flood and Water-Logging Disaster Risk Analysis and Research of Bazhong City

Menghao Xi, Qiuhong Zhao, Ningcheng Yang
Flood natural disasters to the human society has caused heavy casualties and property losses, etc., based on the statistical analysis of Sichuan Bazhong flood formation mechanism of natural disasters, on the basis of using risk management theory and methods of building mathematical model for the evaluation...
Proceedings Article

Risk Assessment of Typhoon Storm Surge Disasters in Guangdong Province Based on the Improved Fuzzy Bayesian Network

Chengzu Bai, Ren Zhang, JianQi Zhang, Ting Wang
To expand insufficient information resource and express fuzzy uncertainty for risk assessment, a new Bayesian network was proposed in this paper. Information diffusion model and triangle fuzzy values were employed to improve the prior probability, using Monte Carlo method to establish the conditional...
Proceedings Article

Regionalization of Flood Disaster Risk on the County Scale in Semiarid Region-in HeLinGe'Er Case

Xuguang Liu, Ren Bu, Yulong Bao, Baocheng Wei
Based on using basic geographic,socio-economic statistics and meteorological data of HeLinGe'Er, in addition the mechanisms of flood disaster for the risk analysis and divisions,it formed flood disaster index system of risk analysis,it including the indexs of hazard factor,hazard inducing environment,disaster...
Proceedings Article

Evaluation of Eco-environmental Sensitivity in Xilingol Grassland

Li Mei, Shan Yin, Wala Du, Yuhai Bao, Shan Yu
This paper selected the soil erosion, land desertization, bio-inhabitation as sensitive factor to research eco-environmental sensitivity spatial distribution characteristics of the Xilingol Grassland. (1)slight sensitivity is the main level of soil erosion sensitivity, which mainly distributes in the...
Proceedings Article

The Response Characteristics of Xilingol Grassland to Uneven Distribution of Precipitation at Temporal and Spatial Scale

Qiaofeng Zhang, Hongbo Yu, Guixiang Liu, Yuhai Bao
Precipitation is the most important water supply source, it has important significance on the vegetation growth, and was an important factor affecting the drought severity in Xilingol grassland. Based on 15 meteorological stations precipitation data and MODIS MOD13A3 NDVI data, Pearson correlation analysis...
Proceedings Article

Characteristics and Sensitivity Analysis Division of Flood Disaster in Hohhot

Na Zha, Ren Bu, Fuying Qin
Based on 1993 to 2012 of daily precipitation data from seven meteorological station in Hohhot , rainstorm and flood disaster data, Hohhot water distribution figure, 30 meters DEM digital elevation image and Landsat TM images data, using GIS spatial analysis method, classification method, Dimidiate Pixel...
Proceedings Article

Evaluation of Typhoon Disaster Losses of Hainan Island Rubber Plantation

Jinghong Zhang, Haijing Huang, Xiufen Che, Mingjie Zhang
Hainan Island is selected as the study area, which is the main base of natural rubber production. In this research, according to the analysis and study of the cause of rubber wind disaster, parameters in the evaluation model was determined with statistics method based on the environment background and...
Proceedings Article

The Application of the Hesistant Analytic Hierarchy Process in the Natural Risk Assessment of Overseas Support Bases

Deliang Jiang, Ren Zhang, Zhe Wang, Mengqian Yang
Focusing on the potential natural risk of overseas support bases, the paper structures the assessment model based on the risk identification according to the particular political and military function. The model uses the Hesitated Analytic Hierarchy Process to collect the specialistic information in...
Proceedings Article

Copula-based Analysis of Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Drought in Songnen Grassland

Rina Wu, Jiquan Zhang, Quan Lai, Siqin Tong
In this paper, daily temperature and daily precipitation data at 15 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2014 in Songnen Grassland were used to analyze the characteristics of spatial distribution of drought. A drought event is defined by the run theory and the drought event is described by two characteristic...
Proceedings Article

Analysis of Anomalous Tropical Cyclone Activities over the Western North Pacific and the South China Sea in 2015

Dandan Yu, Lishan Li, Lei Wan
Tropical cyclone (TC) activities over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea in 2015 have such characteristics as so many typhoons in winter and spring, so few typhoons in the South China Sea, generated source is easier than usual. Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, and the Outgoing Long...
Proceedings Article

The Application of Gray Model and BP Artificial Neural Network in Predicting Drought in the Liaoning Province

Xiaojing Liu, Yongpeng Song, Donglai Ma, Peng Chen
Precipitation prediction is the core of a regional drought prediction. Due to the great randomness and uncertainty in the precipitation process, this study combined the grey model and BP artificial neural network. The residual errors of precipitation were modified by the BP artificial neural network...
Proceedings Article

Study of Handan's Urban Waterlog Risk Problem Based on Two-dimensional Information Diffusion Model

Shujun Guo, Fanlei Zeng, Ga Wang, Gongwen Zhang, Jianwei Liu, Hongfeng Wang, Wei Sun
this paper studied urban road waterlog risk problem of Handan based on the two-dimensional information diffusion model, fist to collected original data including distribution of waterlog spots, raining strength, waterlog history, danger sources and risk bearing objects with the joint of meteorology department,...
Proceedings Article

Hohhot Earthquake Emergency Shelter Planning and Construction Situation Analysis and Suggestion

Xiaoli Cui, Zhifen Sun, Narenmandula Narenmandula, Zhuoligetu Zhuoligetu, Jianzhong Zhang
Reasonable planning and construction of emergency shelters is an important job for urban economic and social sustainable development, to ensure the safety of people's lives and property, it has very important significance for earthquake disaster reduction. This paper introduces the principle of planning...
Proceedings Article

Grey forecasting of flood disaster and characteristics of summer grading-precipitation in Togtoh County

Qimuge Qimuge, Buren Buren, Xiaojun Huang
Flood disaster is one of the meteorological disasters which has a great frequency and is more serious in China. Because of the geographical location of Togtoh County, the rainfall is often concentrated in the summer, so the summer rainfall in the region has a direct impact on the occurrence of floods....
Proceedings Article

Disaster Risk of Landscape-Rockfall in Danxia Landform of Kongtong Mountain

Yutian Ke, Shouyun Liang, Zhuo Chen
Kongtong Mountain national geopark is characterized by Danxia landform. Lots of strange shaped unstable rocks emerged in the Danxia landform areas, not only do they have great ornamental and aesthetic value but also are potential geological disasters. During the formation process of landscape-rockfall,...
Proceedings Article

A Tentative Study on the Influence of Climate Variations for Clipping Pasture's Straw Yield in Hulunbuir Grassland-With Chenbarag Banner for Example

Wei Yan, Hugejiletu Hugejiletu, Narenmandula Narenmandula
The paper takes Chenbarag Banner, Hulunbuir on as the research object, analysis the meteorological data of 1980-2015 and quadrat survey data of 2011-2015, preliminary mastered the influnce of climate change on clipping pasture's straw yield in Hulunbuir Grassland. It is concluded that: First, Chenbarag...
Proceedings Article

Influence of Hydrothermal Condition and Topography on Dynamic of Vegetation Coverage in Inner Mongolia

Durina Wen, Yuhai Bao, Shan Yin
Vegetation cover is a good indicator for evaluation terrestrial environment. The research on the response of hydrothermal conditions and the relationship with the topographic condition has become one of the main contents.The annual dynamics and spatial variability of vegetation in Inner Mongolia were...
Proceedings Article

Rainstorm Waterlogging Causes and Prevention Measures in Urban Area of Hohhot City

Wentong Li, Zhifen Sun, Narenmandula Narenmandula, Buren Buren, Yuhai Bao, Eerdunmutu Jin
Analyzing the reasons of waterlogging, the main reasons of waterlogging in Hohhot city includes the change of climate leads to the frequent occurrence of extreme rainstorm, with the change of underlying surface of the city the process of runoff of rainwater also changed the low criteria of diainage systems...
Proceedings Article

Method of Seismic Tsunami Hazard Estimate Effect Coupling Uncertainty of Magnitude and Focal Depth

Zhe Liu, Jianwei Tian, Luchuan Ren
We discuss a method to estimate the seismic tsunami hazard coupling uncertainty of upper magnitude limit and focal depth in this paper. The method of estimating uncertainties of upper magnitude limit and focal depth is discussed. Manila trench and Ryukyu trench subduction zones are chosen to be the potential...
Proceedings Article

Risk Assessment of the Bureau Storm Disaster by the Application of Extension Theory in Sichuan

Tiangui Xiao, Fengrong Jing, Yawen Zhu, Yujie Fang, Wan Li
Based on 1966-2013 daily precipitation data of 141 sites in Sichuan, GIS elevation and social statistics in Sichuan, extension theory and analytic hierarchy process, return period, correlation function and other methods to build the risk evaluation model of the bureau storm of local heavy rain in Sichuan...
Proceedings Article

The Analysis of Natural Disasters in China from 1998 to 2016 based on Text Mining

Xiao Liu, Haixiang Guo, Yijing Li, Chunmiao Yang
This paper takes the 248 disaster events happened in China from 1998 to 2016 as samples, uses text mining, descriptive statistics, association rules and other methods to implement event extraction for disaster events in history, and then analyzes characteristics of the disasters including type, location...
Proceedings Article

Assessment of Earthquake Disaster Risk in Gansu Province

Wenkai Chen, Huijuan Pei, Congwang XI, Yanping Sun, Wen Li
This paper established the earthquake disaster risk assessment index system for Gansu Province firstly, determined weights of index factor, and then calculated the earthquake disaster risk, exposure, vulnerability and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity based on GIS software platform, finally...
Proceedings Article

Applicability Research of Drought Monitoring Indexes on Mongolia Plateau Based on the EOS/MODIS Time Sequence

Duwala Duwala, Yushan Yushan, Narisu Narisu, Guixiang Liu
Taking Mongolia plateau as a study area, make use of the temperature and vegetation products of the EOS/MODIS data to calculate four index they are vegetation condition index (VCI) and temperature condition index (TCI) and vegetation health index (VHI) andÿvegetation supply water indexÿ(VSWI). Mapped...
Proceedings Article

Research on Rainstorm Risk Evaluation System Construction in Sichuan Province

Ding Chen, Tiangui Xiao, Fengrong Jing, Li Wang, Jianglin Fan, Zhaoyu Zhan, Weiwei Gan, Chao Wang, Yujie Fang, Yawen Zhu
This paper based on the Sichuan daily precipitation data, geographic information and historical data such as disaster,then using industry proven lightweight Java EE frameworks to building the business of system and the evaluation model implemented by Fortran language, Finally completion of the rainstorm...
Proceedings Article

Analysis on Economic Impact of Flood Control and Disaster Mitigation--A Case Study of Togtoh County

Baotana Baotana, Buren Buren, Xiaojun Huang
Our country is one of the countries which are affected by natural disasters most in the world. Every year, disasters cause huge losses to national economy and people's living. Since it enters into 1960s, rainstorms, flood and waterlogging have become major disasters which affect our country's social...
Proceedings Article

Risk Analysis and Strong Ground Motion Characteristics of Ludian Ms 6.5 Earthquake

Sen Qiao, Xueliang Chen, Aiwen Liu, Zengping Wen, Xiaojun Li, Zongchao Li, Tiefei Li
There was an earthquake hit Ludian county, Yunnan province on August 3, 2014, and the seismogenic fault was the North-West Baogunao-Xiaohe Fault. The magnitude of the surface wave magnitude (Ms) was 6.5, not so large, but the earthquake caused severe casualties. The main-shock strong ground motions were...
Proceedings Article

Research on the Application of AIRO Model in Indirect Economic Loss Assessment of Disaster

Peng Zhang, Lizhi Wu, Jing Xin, Jing Liu
The assessment of the indirect economic loss cased by the disaster has great significance on the reconstruction. However, when assessing the indirect loss after disaster, it needs research on the scientific and sensitivity of the parameters of the model structure and the availability of the corresponding...
Proceedings Article

Seismic Moment-Rate and Longtoushan Records to Determinate Seismogenic Fault Direction of Ludian Ms6.5 Earthquake

Xueliang Chen, Mengtan Gao, Shicheng Li, Jianwen Cui, Jinping Guo, Sen Qiao
Three-component displacement time histories on the surface of near-field fault are obtained from analytical calculation of seismic moment release rate function and energy center source model. Analytical strong motion are compared with the strong motion records in meizoseismal area, the results indicated...
Proceedings Article

Spatiotemporal Variations of Hydrologic Extremes and Response to Extreme Precipitation in Xiang River Basin

Linlin Cheng, Juan Du, Yumeng Yang
Trends of streamflow and water level extremes are significant indicators reflecting the risk of floods and droughts. The study on trends of hydrologic extremes can provide references for water resource management and flood risk analysis. Based on Mann-Kendall test, this article detected existing trends...
Proceedings Article

The Return Period Analysis of Beijing Heavy Rainfall Based on Copula

Weihua Cao
Heavy rainfall is a serious hazard, which lead to losses of urban property and cause casualties. In this paper, based on hourly precipitation data of Guanxiangtai meteorological station of Beijing, bivariate joint distribution of heavy rainfall is established using the observed data of accumulated precipitation...