Proceedings of the 8th Annual Meeting of Risk Analysis Council of China Association for Disaster Prevention (RAC 2018)

Session: Risk analysis and emergency management of natural disasters

50 articles
Proceedings Article

A Harmonized Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Northern China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

Changlong Li
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has many strong earthquakes and tectonic activities. In recent years, different probability seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) projects has been done around the area. This paper made a harmonized PSHA for this area. This paper concluded that in the most areas...
Proceedings Article

Investigation on Implemental System of Provincial Emergency Plan for Unexpected Geological Disasters in Shaanxi Province

Yanlin Wang, Chunyu Bu, Jingyi Liu, Chengfang Zhang, Zhen Qi
This paper points out problems in the implementation of emergency plan for geological disasters in Shaanxi Province by analyzing typical cases in recent years. Drawing lessons from emergency management theory at home and abroad and using systematology, three-stage implemental system of provincial emergency...
Proceedings Article

Design and Implementation of Dynamic Deduction System for Emergency Drills of Waterlogging Disaster

Peng Chen, Jiquan Zhang, Yingyue Sun, Jianhua Bao, Shuo Zhang, Hongyang Zhao
in recent years, urban waterlogging is frequent, resulting in greater and greater losses. The disaster emergency drill is an important measure to reduce the losses caused by disasters, but the traditional emergency drill is not only time-consuming, but also wastes a lot of manpower, money and material...
Proceedings Article

Establishment of Evapotranspiration Model of Vegetation Communities in Xilin River Basin

Congming Cao, Hongbo Yu, Tao Guo, Qiaofeng Zhang
Surface evapotranspiration is the process of moisture exchange in the atmosphere, biosphere and hydrosphere. Accurate estimation of evapotranspiration has important application value for regional water resources assessment, crop water requirement and production management, agricultural drought monitoring...
Proceedings Article

Study on the Takeoff Landing Number of Emergency Rescue Aircraft Demand After Earthquake

Xiuyan Zhang, Hong Chi
Due to the lack of information after earthquake, the demand for takeoff landing number of emergency rescue aircraft is not clear. The model for takeoff landing number of emergency rescue aircraft demand after earthquake is constructed. Firstly, the total task amount of emergency rescue is determined...
Proceedings Article

An Estimate of the Integrated Risk of Flood and Earthquake in Santai County

Qiuyu Wang, Chongfu Huang
In essence, the key to solve the problem of multi-disaster probability risk assessment is to find out the joint probability distribution and its vulnerability function. Based on the principle of information diffusion, this paper proposes an integrated risk analysis model for earthquake and flood, the...
Proceedings Article

Risk Assessment of People Trapped in Earthquakes Based on Km Grid: A Case Study in Zhaotong City, Yunnan, China

Benyong Wei, Xiang Dong, Yuling Ma, Xiaoyun Zhao, Shuangshuang Shi
Risk assessment of the trapped personnel location is the important basis for earthquake disaster risk preparation and emergency search and rescue in an earthquake. Using a constructed assessment model, we assessed the risk of people trapped in the collapsed buildings caused by an earthquake in Zhaotong...
Proceedings Article

Earthquake Risk Analysis and Rapid Assessment of Disaster Losses in Linfen Area

Xiaofei Han, Zihong Li, Jianjie Bo, Xiaoyun Zhao, Shuangshuang Shi
Through the probability analysis of seismic hazard analysis, the probability distribution results of different intensity in each township of Linfen area are given. Through analysis, it is concluded that the probability of occurrence of high-intensity impact in the Linfen basin is higher than that of...
Proceedings Article

Anchoring Risk Analysis and Management of Anchored Vessels at Tangshan Caofeidian Port

Feng Wang, Qiang Long, Zhengjiao Qi, Chang Wang, Yi Lin
Using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on AHP, combined with the maximum degree of membership and the subjective scoring of influencing factors, the risk of mooring ships anchoring in the Caofeidian harbor anchorage was analyzed, and the weights of selected influencing factors were determined,...
Proceedings Article

Basic on Asperity Uncertainty Factors: Near-field Strong Ground Motion Prediction in Tianshui Basin

Zongchao Li, Mengtan Gao, Xueliang Chen, Sen Qiao, Jian Wu
Taking the core area of Tianshui earthquake as the object of study, the Green function method is used to predict the ground motion characteristics of the Ms8.0 destructive earthquake in the future. We mainly studied the cognitive uncertainty of asperity. We used logical tree method to research the cognitive...
Proceedings Article

Susceptibility Evaluation of Debris Flow in Middle and Lower Reaches of Bailong River Based on Source Features

Gaofeng Wang, Yuntao Tian, Qiang Yang, Ning Guo, Bing Deng, Yupeng Ren, Youlong Gao
Debris flow susceptibility evaluation is the prerequisite for risk assessment, important basis for disaster prevention and mitigation work. Based on the field investigation of the debris flow disaster in the middle and lower reaches of the Bailong River, four evaluation factors of aspect, lithology,...
Proceedings Article

A study on Analysis of Macroeconomic Loss Risk of Earthquakes —Take Chengdu City as an Example

Qing Wu
Each district/county under the jurisdiction of a city was regarded as a site. The Monte Carlo method was used to simulate the seismic sequences. For each earthquake in the seismic sequence, the ground motion parameters of each site were calculated through the attenuation relationship and brought into...
Proceedings Article

Lightning Disaster Risk Identification and Risk Management Measures

Jun Wang, Hailing Ma, Zhifeng Huang, Xiuying Wang, Xiaoyan Liu, Jihong Zhang, Xinjian Zhu
The risk identification of lightning disaster is the work of discovering and identifying the risk of lightning disaster in the system. This is a very important work, which is the basis of risk control and management of lightning disaster and can help to think purposefully about how to take action to...
Proceedings Article

Drought Characteristics for Maize and its Effect on Yield in Midwestern Jilin Province

Rui Wang, Jiquan Zhang, Tiehua Cao, Xin Zhao, Jing Zhao, Si Alu
Maize is the main grain crop in Midwestern Jilin province. It’s conducive to analyze the characteristics and the effects on maize of droughts. 9 stations were selected during 1960-2014 based on the crop water deficit index (CWDI) and drought grades. Results show that:(1) The district water deficit condition...
Proceedings Article

A Study on the System of Military Chess Promotion for Refugees in Urban Waterlogging Disaster

Jianhua Bao, Peng Chen, Shuo Zhang, Hongyang Zhao
Urban waterlogging disaster poses a great threat to the safety of residents' life and property, so the study on the residents' safety of urban waterlogging disaster has been paid more and more attention.Taking the daoli district of Harbin as the research object, the application of military strategy is...
Proceedings Article

Spatiotemporal Characteristics Analysis of Environmental Sensitivity of Drought Disaster in Xilingol Grassland

Qiaofeng Zhang, Guixiang Liu, Hongbo Yu, Shan Yu, Yuhai Bao
Under the background of global warming, drought is one of the main meteorological disasters in China. The risk assessment of drought disaster is the premise of risk early warning and actual disaster evaluation, and it is the basis of disaster prevention and reduction. In this paper,meteorological data,...
Proceedings Article

Synthetical Weather Index Insurance Product Design - A Case of Millet in Wuzhai, Shanxi

Yueqin Wang, Sijian Zhao, Qiao Zhang, Qian Nie
Using the daily meteorological data from 1957 to 2015, the time series data of millet yield from 1980 to 2015, and the investigation and previous studies of meteorological disasters in Wuzhai County of Shanxi Province , the key meteorological disasters affecting the yield of millet at various growth...
Proceedings Article

Disaster Risk Assessment of Lahar in Changbai Mountains

Qing Ma, Jiquan Zhang, Yichen Zhang, Zhijun Tong, Si Alu, Lina Han, Xiangqian Li
Lahar is the most important secondary disaster of volcanoes. According to the principle of natural disaster risk, using the natural data and socio-economic statistics of the study area, a risk assessment model for lahar hazards was established using the disaster risk index method, entropy method, and...
Proceedings Article

Collapse Disaster Risk Assessment of Changbai Mountain Region Based on GIS

Lina Han, Jiquan Zhang, Yichen Zhang, Zhijun Tong, Alu Si, Qing Ma
Taking the Changbai Mountain Nature Reserve as the research area, based on the theory of modern disaster risk, the comprehensive use of GIS spatial analysis and disaster risk assessment mathematical methods, quantitative assessment of the risk of collapse disaster in Changbai Mountain area. Remote sensing...
Proceedings Article

Research on Urban Water Logging Emergency Rescue Based on Military Chess Deduction

Shuo Zhang, Peng Chen, Jianhua Bao, Hongyang Zhao
At present,the social waterlogging disasters are frequent and there are many uncertain factors in the analysis of waterlogging. In this study, we use dynamic Bayesian model to analyze the probability of uncertain disasters, and achieve the wargame technology of waterlogging disasters in Harbin Daoli...
Proceedings Article

Effects of Drought and Climate Change on Forest damage and Its Hazard Assessment

Yongbin Bao, Jiquan Zhang, Xingpeng Liu, Na Li, Yuhai Bao, Qing Ma
Effects of drought and climate change on forest diseases and pests are increasingly significant, with the global change. As an important forestry zone in China, it is necessary to study on Daxing'an Mountains. Based on the forest diseases and pests and the meteorological data, we calculate SPEI and Humidity/Temperature...
Proceedings Article

Simulation of Sudden Water Pollution Accidents of Hun River Based on SMS

Bo Meng, Nan Li, Dongping Fang
This paper simulates migration and transformation of pollutants in the river when pesticide 2,4-D polluted into the river based on SMS.The result shows the process of contaminants flow through the city of Shenyang. According to the simulation results, sudden water pollution accident response strategies...
Proceedings Article

Analysis of Associated Economic Loss of Meteorological Disasters among the Belt and Road Typical Countries ——Taking the China's Typhoon Rammasun in 2014 as an Example

Changyuan Wang, Xianhua Wu, Lei Zhou
Under the background of economic globalization and regional economic integration, the associated economic losses caused by disasters to relevant regions and industries have increasingly become the focus and difficulty of people's attention. Based on the multiregional input-output model (MRIO model),...
Proceedings Article

Impacts of Northern Expansion of Typical Corn Planting Regions in China under the Background of Climate Warming and SpatialEvolution of Cold Damage

Jing Zhao, Jiquan Zhang, Xingpeng Liu, Ying Li, Rui Wang
Global warming has caused geographical displacements in the north of the safe corn planting in the Northeast, and the occurrence of cold damage in sensitive areas after the north boundary displacement has yet to be explored. Based on the effective accumulated temperature required for the growth and development...
Proceedings Article

Reflection on Urban Resilience Based on Multi-prospecting Flood Risk Analysis—— Take Xiamen as an example

Tianhao Wu, Wei Huang, Guofang Zhai
Improvement of engineering facilities once cannot protect a city against natural disasters forever. The concept of resilience provides a new idea to increase urban safety. Taking Xiamen as an example, this study sets up three scenarios, which are common conditions, general disasters, and extreme disasters...
Proceedings Article

Shallow Landslide Spatial Early Warning Model Induced by Heavy Rainfall in South China Area

Qinghua Gong, Jun Wang, Shaoxiong Yuan, Jun Chen
Controlled by the characteristics of regional geological environment, the mechanism of slope runoff and hydrological processes under severe rainfall conditions in South China is fundamentally different from other regions. Therefore, the formation mechanism of shallow landslides induced by heavy precipitation...
Proceedings Article

Comparison Analysis of Rapid Assessment Models for Earthquake Disaster Life Loss in Gansu Province for Earthquake Emergency Response

Wen Li, Wenkai Chen, Zhonghong Zhou, Yanping Sun, Jin Chen
In this paper, a typical life loss model for earthquake disasters is used to verify and calculate the historical earthquake cases in Gansu Province since 1966. The accuracy and applicability of various models in Gansu Province are studied through actual earthquake cases. The study results shows that:...
Proceedings Article

A Study of Temporal-spatial Evolution Model of Grassland Fire Behavior and Fire Risk Warning Based on MCD45

Yulong Bao, Yuhai Bao, Lai Quan, Yong Mei, Enliang Guo, Zhijuan Bai
With the adoption of MCD45 product in a consecutive twelve years, the spatial evolution model of fire behavior in the study area is analyzed and the spatial and temporal variation rule in interannual and seasonal duration is mastered. On that basis and starting from the principle of grassland fire combustion...
Proceedings Article

The Disability Adjusted Lifeyear Losses of Disasters, the Case of Wenchuan Earthquake

Cong Lang, Xinyan Wu, Mengtan Gao, Guochun Wu
This paper uses DALYs to aggregate measure the number of fatalities, of people affected, and the financial damage of disaster impact and apply it to Wenchuan Earthquake. The estimated total number of lifeyear losses is 18,359,222 years. Injuries and affected people contribute 40.8% to the total losses,...
Proceedings Article

Integrated Risk Estimation in Fujiang River Basin in Sichuan by Using Information Diffusion Technology

Xiaojun Pan, Chongfu Huang, Lingyan Zhang
The earthquake and flood damage data of the families in villages and towns along Fujiang River in Sichuan are collected by using Internet of intelligences. The information diffusion technology is used to estimate the integrated risk caused by earthquake and flood. The villages and towns have suffered...
Proceedings Article

Research on Oxygen Concentration in the Clean Room of Semiconductor Factory Based on FLUENT

Bo Meng
This paper simulates the diffusion of nitrogen in clean room. In GAMBIT, we establish a three-dimensional model, then set parameters in FLUENT. Finally, the FLUENT post-processing function and TECPLOT obtain the velocity vector diagram, nitrogen and oxygen distribution diagram and anoxic zone distribution...
Proceedings Article

Spatial-temporal Distribution Characteristics of Snow Depth in Mongolian Plateau Based on Reanalysis Data

Lai Quan, Yulong Bao, Yongbin Bao, Sa Chula, Yuhai Bao
In this paper, using the 1980-2015 ECMWF reanalysis data, the MVC method was used to obtain the monthly snow depth. Combined with trend analysis, 5a moving average, abnormal year analysis and MK mutation test, we analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of snow depth and it influencing factors in...
Proceedings Article

Distribution Characteristics and Hazard Analysis of Mountain Torrent Disaster in Guangdong Province, China

Jun Wang, Qinghau Gong, Shaoxiong Yuan, Haixian Xiong, Xiaoling Yin
Based on the mountain torrent disaster data, a GIS database was established to analyze the distribution characteristics of mountain torrent disasters in Guangdong province, China. Factors such as lithology, slope, elevation, aspect, slope pattern, and distance to river networks were selected to assess...
Proceedings Article

The Influence of Obstructions of Evacuation Node on Subway Stations Fire Evacuation Capability

Ying Huang, Jun Lei, Ke Wang
At present, the subway has become one of the main modes of transportation in China's large and medium-sized cities, and the frequent occurrence and loss of subway fire accidents have attracted much attention in the study of subway fire evacuation. Subway platforms, staircases, escalators, brake machines...
Proceedings Article

A Meteorological Risk Assessment Model for Geological Disasters of Qinhuangdao

Lihua Sun, Xiuzhi Cao, Weimin Li, Tianyun Zhang
Using Qinhuangdao 1953-2017, 53 cases of geological disasters and disaster 3 to 7 days before the period of 24 h, occur daily rainfall data, analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution of geological disasters and rainfall, rainfall intensity, rainfall duration and the relationship between the geological...
Proceedings Article

Risk Measurement of Large Group Emergency Decision-making of Major Floods Disaster Based on Social Network

Xuanhua Xu, Qianhui Zhang, Linlin Wang, Shanglong Liu, Xin Yang
Considering the relationship between the experts and the decision risk caused by the fuzziness of the expert preference information under the social network, a research method for the risk measurement of the large flood disaster emergency decision in the social network is proposed. First, we use large...
Proceedings Article

Study on the Improvement of LGDM Based on the Conflict and Risk Perception

Xuanhua Xu, Zhipeng Ma, Yanfen Yu, Yanxia Huang, Zhao Yang
The logical connection and impact of group conflict and risk perception on the quality improvement of l emergency LGDM are the frontier issues in the study of the quality of emergency LGDM. Based on risk decision theory and conflict theory, this paper studies the mechanism of group conflict and risk...
Proceedings Article

The Study on Estimating Grassland NPP based on BP Neural Network Algorithm

Zhijun Tong, Xiangqian Li, Xingpeng Liu, Jiquan Zhang
Grassland NPP is an important component of the carbon cycle of terrestrial ecosystems, which can directly measure the carrying capacity of grassland ecosystem. Considering the disadvantages of the existing NPP estimated models, this study adopt BP neural network model to estimate the NPP for XilinGol...
Proceedings Article

Assessing Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Drought based on SPI in Mongolia Plateau

Enliang Guo, Yulong Bao, Ren Bu, Yuhai Ren, Quan Lai, Mei Yong, Yongfang Wang
This study is based on the SPI that was calculated from precipitation data of the TerraClimate dataset during 1958-2017, analysis of spatiotemporal characteristics of drought in Mongolia Plateau using climate trend and Pettit mutation method, the results showed that the Mongolian Plateau get significant...
Proceedings Article

Analysis of Types and Effects of Extensive Disaster — a Case of Tamil Nadu, India

Yaolong Liu, Ye Xue, Huaming Zhang
Intensive disaster risk and extensive disaster risk are the two main contemporary trends and patterns of global disaster risk. The former has become the focus of long-term international and academic attention due to its high lethality and destructiveness. The latter shows a local frequency and cumulative...
Proceedings Article

Risk Assessment and Regionalization of Rainstorm - Flood Disasters in Shanxi

Huaming Zhang, Yaolong Liu, Jianxin Zhang, Lin Wang
Rainstorm- flood are one of the main meteorological disasters in Shanxi province, resulting in a large number of casualties, assets damage and economic losses. Based on the historical disaster data of rainstorm- flood, and considering the two aspects of disaster frequency and disaster impact, the hazard...
Proceedings Article

The Spatial and Temporal Change of Snow Days in Inner Mongolia in Recent 35 Years

Chenhao Li, Chula Sa, Guixiang Liu, Mulan Wang, Junde Hu
Snow cover days are an important parameter to characterize the variation of snow cover and it’s also sensitive factors of regional climate response. This paper we used 1979-2014 older time series of microwave remote sensing data in Inner Mongolia and 47’s weather station meteorological observation data...
Proceedings Article

Research on the Accident Statistics Analysis of Zhejiang Province in 2017

Zhiwen Wang, Jingfeng Zhang, Shenghua Zhang
This paper takes the accidents of Zhejiang province in 2017 as the research object to discuss the occurrence regularity of accidents and study on the accident characteristics of the accidents in the whole province, road transport sector and mines and commercial and trade sectors from the perspective...
Proceedings Article

The Study on Drought Trend Evolution in Liaoning Province in recent 50 years based on SPEI

Yanru Liu, Donglai Ma, Xiaojing Liu, Meixuan Huang
Taking Liaoning Province as the study area, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was constructed by using the daily precipitation and temperature data from 25 stations during 1965-2014. The annual precipitation and annual average SPEI were tested for by Mann-Kendall method to discuss...
Proceedings Article

Risk Assessment of Flood Disaster Based on Set Pair Analysis and the Variable Fuzzy Set Theory in Yuquan District, Hohhot City

Ren Bu, Enliang Guo, Mandula Naren
This study presents the methodology and procedure for risk assessment of flood disasters in Yuquan district, Hohhot City, which was supported by technology of natural disaster risk assessment. On the basis of the standard formulation of natural disaster risk and flood disaster risk index, of which weights...
Proceedings Article

Extreme High Temperature Hazard Assessment for Summer Corn at Henan Province

Qi Zhang, Wenjie Huang
Extreme high temperature (EHT) brings great losses for agriculture under global warming. Based on “accumulate temperature and yield” model, threshold of EHT for corn were determined, and then to study the spatial and temporal characters of EHT and its effects on corn. The results shown that (1) the threshold...
Proceedings Article

A Study on Risk Assessment and Zoning of Sea Ice Disaster in Shandong Province

Benkun Yuan, Jie Shang, Shan Zhong, Qingrong Liu, Ge Li, Yan Jiao, Chengqing Ruan
Sea ice disaster is one of the main marine disasters in Shandong province. To carry out risk assessment and zoning of sea ice disaster is helpful to guide the coastal governments at all levels to formulate and optimize the decision-making of sea ice disaster prevention and mitigation. Through selecting...
Proceedings Article

Analysis of Damage Characteristics and Strong Ground Motion of Jiuzhaigou (Ms7.0) Earthquake

Sen Qiao, Xueliang Chen, Aiwen Liu, Tiefei Li, Zongchao Li, Zhen Zhang, Quanbo Luo
Taking Jiuzhaigou after the earthquake disaster investigation data and the basis of strong earthquake records, we analyzed the characteristics of earthquake damage and the distribution characteristics of strong ground motion parameter PGA in this paper. The results of the investigation show that the...
Proceedings Article

Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Dust Weather in Mongolia Plateau

Chelger Qi, Mei Yong, Shan Yin, Yulong Bao, Lige Bi
Dust weather refers to strong winds blew a lot of dust sand weather disasters make visibility extremely reduced, is the main meteorological disasters in arid and semi arid area.It is of great significance to study the movement paths and intensity changes of cross-border dust storms in Mongolia for the...
Proceedings Article

Application Research of Topographic Slope as A Proxy for Seismic Site-Conditions and Amplification in China Earthquake Risk Assessment

Jian Zhou, Xiaojun Li, Kun Chen, Xiaoqing Wang, Jian Wu
The seismic site-conditions and amplification, which would lead to the great difference between minor and major damage, was necessary in earthquake risk assessment to derive the earthquake site Peak Ground Acceleration (GPA) partial distribution. The method of using topographic slope as a proxy for seismic...