Three-Factor Model of Predicting Bankruptcy of a Trading Company and the Advantages of Its Application in a Digital Economy
- DOI
- 10.2991/aebmr.k.200502.067How to use a DOI?
- Keywords
- predicting bankruptcy, models, trading companies, Russia, financial risks, digital economy
- Abstract
The rapid development of information and communication technologies, their escalation in all spheres of our life led to the formation of a new economic era - the digital economy, which is the key driver of acceleration of economic growth. This fact is generally acknowledged both in the scientific community and at all levels of government in the Russian Federation. Proof of this is the state program “Digital economy of the Russian Federation”, which was approved by Government Order of July 28, 2017 No. 1632-r. The purpose of the program is to create favorable conditions in Russia for the development of digital economy institutions within the framework of the participation of the state, business community and citizens, and to ensure, on the basis of this, sustainable growth rates of the national economy. One of the main tasks, contributing to the achievement of this purpose, is the creation of new approaches to the organization of the service sector, production and trading sectors, that take into account the achievements of the digital economy and are effective in the development of a global digital ecosystem. In the context of specified objective, the study of these approaches in the field of financial management of Russian trading companies seems relevant. It should be noted, that the trading sector has a special place in the digital economy, as it is developing at the fastest rate due to the growth of electronic trade, the emergence and development of marketplaces and various digital marketing tools. Moreover, most Russian trading companies are characterized by a very conservative approach to financial management. The transition to the digital economy involves a change in the methods and tools of financial management, focused on making timely decisions in order to ensure financial stability and prevent bankruptcy. The subject of this study is the methodological tools for predicting bankruptcy of a company. The purpose of the study: to improve the methodological tools for assessing the probability of bankruptcy of a trading company through the development of the author’s three-factor model. The methodological basis of the study was the logical structural analysis and synthesis, methods of correlation and regression analysis, matrix method. Main results: 1. The analysis of the effectiveness of applying 15 models for assessing the probability of bankruptcy is carried out on the example of 200 Russian trading companies. A number of shortcomings was identified, that limit the effectiveness of their practical application. 2. A three-factor model of predicting the probability of bankruptcy of a trading company is developed by authors, taking into account the most important financial and economic aspects of its activity: economic stability, financial independence and profitability.
- Copyright
- © 2020, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
- Open Access
- This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).
Cite this article
TY - CONF AU - E.S. Volna AU - Yu.A. Dolgikh AU - Yu.E. Slepukhina PY - 2020 DA - 2020/05/05 TI - Three-Factor Model of Predicting Bankruptcy of a Trading Company and the Advantages of Its Application in a Digital Economy BT - Proceedings of the 2nd International Scientific and Practical Conference “Modern Management Trends and the Digital Economy: from Regional Development to Global Economic Growth” (MTDE 2020) PB - Atlantis Press SP - 405 EP - 410 SN - 2352-5428 UR - https://doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.200502.067 DO - 10.2991/aebmr.k.200502.067 ID - Volna2020 ER -