A Model to Predict the Propagation of Ebola

DOI

10.2991/emim-15.2015.164How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Ebola; SIR model; Runge-Kutta method; Comprehensive evaluation coefficient

Abstract

By predicting the propagation of Ebola, we can find a better way to control the spread of the virus. Unlike traditional SIR model, we consider the patients under incubation period and antibody carriers after cure in our model. To begin with, we apply five classifications to sample individuals (i.e. the susceptible, borderline cases, confirmed cases, death cases and the cured cases), by which we establish a first order differential system to represent the disease propagation. By applying Runge-Kutta method to established system, we obtain a fitted curve. Then, to get the access to the detailed propagation parameters, the curve obtained are further fitted with overall profile of epidemic situation as well as top three mostly-infected countries, through which the future propagation is more predictable. Finally, we introduce the comprehensive evaluation coefficient of effective cover efficiency . The result shows that when is 100%, the time of disease controlled is 13 weeks. And when is 0, the time of complete eradication of the disease is more than 50 weeks without any medical treatment. Thus, it is better to take a medical treatment of higher intensity.

Copyright

© 2015, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Tongzheng Jiang
PY  - 2015/04
DA  - 2015/04
TI  - A Model to Predict the Propagation of Ebola
BT  - Proceedings of the 2015 International Conference on Education, Management, Information and Medicine
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 842
EP  - 846
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/emim-15.2015.164
DO  - 10.2991/emim-15.2015.164
ID  - Jiang2015/04
ER  -