Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on Economic and Business Management (FEBM 2019)

Japan's Relative GDP and Positions in Services Trade: Co-integration and Granger causality tests based on linear VEC models

Authors
Yu Hong, Yu-meng Yang, Kexuan Yu, Ai-jing Hu
Corresponding Author
Ai-jing Hu
Available Online December 2019.
DOI
10.2991/febm-19.2019.50How to use a DOI?
Keywords
Japan; Granger causality; trade in services; relative GDP; time series analysis
Abstract

This study explores the nexus among the Japanese trade in services to world trade and the economic development. Assuming that the relationship is linear, short-run Granger causality indicates that the export position negatively Granger causes the Japanese GDP relative to the world; the relative GDP exerts positive effects on the import position, and the export Granger causes the import position with negative effects while Granger causality runs from the later to the former with positive effects, and; the relative GDP positively Granger causes the Japanese import position. In the long-run, Wald tests show that the co-integration relationship Granger causes both the relative GDP and the import position in services, and; both export and import positions Granger cause the relative GDP, and both the relative GDP and the export position Granger cause the Japanese import position, all with positive effects. The export position in services seems to be exogenous to the model system, probably because of the policy interference of export facilitation.

Copyright
© 2019, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on Economic and Business Management (FEBM 2019)
Series
Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research
Publication Date
December 2019
ISBN
978-94-6252-849-9
ISSN
2352-5428
DOI
10.2991/febm-19.2019.50How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2019, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

Cite this article

TY  - CONF
AU  - Yu Hong
AU  - Yu-meng Yang
AU  - Kexuan Yu
AU  - Ai-jing Hu
PY  - 2019/12
DA  - 2019/12
TI  - Japan's Relative GDP and Positions in Services Trade: Co-integration and Granger causality tests based on linear VEC models
BT  - Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on Economic and Business Management (FEBM 2019)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 205
EP  - 208
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/febm-19.2019.50
DO  - 10.2991/febm-19.2019.50
ID  - Hong2019/12
ER  -