Agricultural Sector Growth and Rural Poverty: Evidence via Semiparametric Spline Path Analysis

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6239-709-5_10How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Growth of the Agricultural Sector; Rural Poverty; Semiparametric Path Analysis; Truncated Spline; Village Funds

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the causal relationship of the variables of Rural Population Migration, Land Use of Agriculture, and Village Funds to the variables of Agricultural Sector Growth and Poverty in Rural areas. The data used is secondary data of 33 provinces in Indonesia in the period 2015–2022 obtained from the publication of the Central Bureau of Statistics, and related ministries. There are linear and non-linear variable relationships, so it is appropriate to use the Truncated Spline semiparametric path analysis model which is the novelty of this research. The measurement results with Truncated Spline show that: (1) the variables of population migration, land use change, and village funds have a significant effect on the growth of the agricultural sector and rural poverty, (2) the truncated spline semiparametric path analysis model is very effective in this study, especially for non-linear forms of relationships between variables. (3) the variable of land use change in rural areas can increase the growth rate of the agricultural sector before finally reducing poverty with a maximum land area limit of 602. 721 hectares, and (4) the village fund variable can reduce rural poverty at a higher rate if the allocation amount is more than IDR. 4,037,405,060.00 per village in one fiscal year during the observation period.

Copyright

© 2026 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Sabir Sabir
AU  - Muh Zhaahir Zaki Sabir
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/06/20
TI  - Agricultural Sector Growth and Rural Poverty: Evidence via Semiparametric Spline Path Analysis
BT  - Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Accounting, Management, and Economics (10th ICAME 2025)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 129
EP  - 148
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6239-709-5_10
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6239-709-5_10
ID  - Sabir2026
ER  -