Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference of Economics, Management, Accounting, and Business Digital (ICEMAB 2025)

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Forecasting the Export Value of Major Commodities in the Provinces of Sumatera

Authors
Fattaya Listy Ivonne1, *, Ayu Wulandari1, Agung Rizki Putra1
1Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Bangka Belitung, Pangkalpinang, Indonesia
*Corresponding author. Email: fattayalisty@gmail.com
Corresponding Author
Fattaya Listy Ivonne
Available Online 25 December 2025.
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6463-974-2_7How to use a DOI?
Keywords
Forecasting; SARIMA; Export
Abstract

This study aims to forecast the export value of main commodities in the provinces of the Sumatra region from January 2025 to December 2027 using the SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) method. The data used consists of monthly export values of key commodities in each province of Sumatra, based on 2-digit HS codes, from January 2019 to December 2024, sourced from Statistics Indonesia (BPS). The results show that six commodities are projected to experience an increase in export value. These include mineral ssfuels from Aceh, Jambi, and South Sumatra; animal or vegetable fats and oils from Lampung, Riau, and West Sumatra. One commodities are expected to show fluctuating export values, namely mineral fuels from Bengkulu. On the other hand, three commodities are forecasted to experience a decline in export value, including tin from Bangka Belitung Islands; electrical machinery and appliances from Riau Islands; animal or vegetable fats and oils from North Sumatera. The provinces that dominate export activities in the Sumatra region are Riau and South Sumatra. Based on the forecasting results, the leading export commodities in the Sumatra region through 2027 are animal or vegetable fats.

Copyright
© 2025 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference of Economics, Management, Accounting, and Business Digital (ICEMAB 2025)
Series
Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research
Publication Date
25 December 2025
ISBN
978-94-6463-974-2
ISSN
2352-5428
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6463-974-2_7How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2025 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

Cite this article

risenwbib
TY  - CONF
AU  - Fattaya Listy Ivonne
AU  - Ayu Wulandari
AU  - Agung Rizki Putra
PY  - 2025
DA  - 2025/12/25
TI  - Forecasting the Export Value of Major Commodities in the Provinces of Sumatera
BT  - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference of Economics, Management, Accounting, and Business Digital (ICEMAB 2025)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 38
EP  - 45
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-974-2_7
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6463-974-2_7
ID  - Ivonne2025
ER  -