Proceedings of the 2022 3rd International Conference on Management Science and Engineering Management (ICMSEM 2022)

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GERT Network of Cost and Risk Control of Construction Project

Authors
Yan Xue1, Ding Liu1, *, Xu Luo1
1Management Science and Engineering, Qingdao University of Technology, Jialing River Road, Qingdao, China
*Corresponding author. Email: liu.ding@qut.edu.cn
Corresponding Author
Ding Liu
Available Online 15 December 2022.
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6463-038-1_61How to use a DOI?
Keywords
whole process of project cost management; risk; GERT; Monte Carlo simulation
Abstract

The early stage of project investment is the most optimal period for preventing project budget overruns, but the basis for evaluating the pre-project investment decision and risk management implementation strategy is unclear. This paper fills the research gap of quantitative analysis of cost risks, and precise matching of risk control strategies in the field of whole-process engineering cost management thus providing an innovative solution method for intelligent matching risk control activities and project cost overruns forecasting. Graphic Evaluation and Review Technique and Bayesian updating method were combined to develop an uncertain system analysis model of the project construction process, and Monte Carlo simulation was applied to figure out the analytical solution with different risk control methods in the project construction period. The results showed the risk transfer probability expectation and cost expectation results while adopting the optimal matching of risk control strategy in the optimal phase of the project construction process can weigh whether the risk control measures are worth implementing under the condition of limited construction period and resources combining with the risk threshold of investors. This is of practical significance for the pre-project investment decision and precise implementation of risk control during the construction process.

Copyright
© 2023 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the 2022 3rd International Conference on Management Science and Engineering Management (ICMSEM 2022)
Series
Atlantis Highlights in Engineering
Publication Date
15 December 2022
ISBN
10.2991/978-94-6463-038-1_61
ISSN
2589-4943
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6463-038-1_61How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2023 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

Cite this article

risenwbib
TY  - CONF
AU  - Yan Xue
AU  - Ding Liu
AU  - Xu Luo
PY  - 2022
DA  - 2022/12/15
TI  - GERT Network of Cost and Risk Control of Construction Project
BT  - Proceedings of the 2022 3rd International Conference on Management Science and Engineering Management (ICMSEM 2022)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 646
EP  - 657
SN  - 2589-4943
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-038-1_61
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6463-038-1_61
ID  - Xue2022
ER  -