Proceedings of the International Research Conference on Resilience for Sustainability: Management Practices and Strategies for the Future (IRC 2025)

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Geopolitical Events and Economic Uncertainty in Crude Oil Market Fluctuations

Authors
Leena Ajit Kaushal1, *
1Management Development Institute, Gurgaon, India
*Corresponding author. Email: leena.kaushal@mdi.ac.in
Corresponding Author
Leena Ajit Kaushal
Available Online 29 September 2025.
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6463-860-8_9How to use a DOI?
Keywords
Geopolitical events; crude oil; market fluctuation
Abstract

This research explores the consequence of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU) on the crude oil prices (COP) volatility subsequent to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, employing an econometric methodology that incorporates OLS regression, cointegration analysis, and VAR models. Analysis of monthly data spanning February 2022 to June 2024 indicates a robust positive correlation between GEPU and oil price volatility, with GEPU accounting for 52.7 percent of the volatility. Cointegration and VAR models are utilized to analyze non-stationary data, demonstrating a substantial long-term link between GEPU and COP volatility. Causal relationships over both near-term and extended periods time horizons are validated by the VECM. Findings indicate that geopolitical crises, as evidenced by indices like economic-policy-uncertainty, significantly impacts crude oil price dynamics.

Copyright
© 2025 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the International Research Conference on Resilience for Sustainability: Management Practices and Strategies for the Future (IRC 2025)
Series
Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research
Publication Date
29 September 2025
ISBN
978-94-6463-860-8
ISSN
2352-5428
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6463-860-8_9How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2025 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

Cite this article

risenwbib
TY  - CONF
AU  - Leena Ajit Kaushal
PY  - 2025
DA  - 2025/09/29
TI  - Geopolitical Events and Economic Uncertainty in Crude Oil Market Fluctuations
BT  - Proceedings of the International Research Conference on Resilience for Sustainability: Management Practices and Strategies for the Future (IRC 2025)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 118
EP  - 128
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-860-8_9
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6463-860-8_9
ID  - Kaushal2025
ER  -