Proceedings of the 9th Joint International Conference on Information Sciences (JCIS-06)

General Election Hatena: The First Political Prediction Market in Japan

Authors
Hiroshi Yamaguchi1
1Komazawa University
Corresponding Author
Hiroshi Yamaguchi
Available Online October 2006.
DOI
https://doi.org/10.2991/jcis.2006.63How to use a DOI?
Keywords
prediction market, election, market design
Abstract

Last year, a Tokyo-based internet venture firm, Hatena Co., ran a political prediction market that was designed to predict the result of the General Election of the Lower House of the Diet, held on September 11, 2005. The market showed reasonable predictive ability that was comparable with the predictions of major newspapers and experts. In this paper, we summarize what happened at the first political prediction market in Japan, General Election Hatena, and discuss the future potential of prediction markets in Japan.

Copyright
© 2006, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the 9th Joint International Conference on Information Sciences (JCIS-06)
Series
Advances in Intelligent Systems Research
Publication Date
October 2006
ISBN
978-90-78677-01-7
ISSN
1951-6851
DOI
https://doi.org/10.2991/jcis.2006.63How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2006, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

Cite this article

TY  - CONF
AU  - Hiroshi Yamaguchi
PY  - 2006/10
DA  - 2006/10
TI  - General Election Hatena: The First Political Prediction Market in Japan
BT  - Proceedings of the 9th Joint International Conference on Information Sciences (JCIS-06)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SN  - 1951-6851
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/jcis.2006.63
DO  - https://doi.org/10.2991/jcis.2006.63
ID  - Yamaguchi2006/10
ER  -