General Election Hatena: The First Political Prediction Market in Japan
- 10.2991/jcis.2006.63How to use a DOI?
- prediction market, election, market design
Last year, a Tokyo-based internet venture firm, Hatena Co., ran a political prediction market that was designed to predict the result of the General Election of the Lower House of the Diet, held on September 11, 2005. The market showed reasonable predictive ability that was comparable with the predictions of major newspapers and experts. In this paper, we summarize what happened at the first political prediction market in Japan, General Election Hatena, and discuss the future potential of prediction markets in Japan.
- © 2006, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
- Open Access
- This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).
Cite this article
TY - CONF AU - Hiroshi Yamaguchi PY - 2006/10 DA - 2006/10 TI - General Election Hatena: The First Political Prediction Market in Japan BT - Proceedings of the 9th Joint International Conference on Information Sciences (JCIS-06) PB - Atlantis Press SN - 1951-6851 UR - https://doi.org/10.2991/jcis.2006.63 DO - 10.2991/jcis.2006.63 ID - Yamaguchi2006/10 ER -