Proceedings of the 8th Mechanical and Industrial Engineering Symposium (MIE 2025)

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Demand Forecasting of NPK Phonska Fertilizer in Central Java Using SARIMA Method

Authors
Fajar Primazona Amdarso1, *, Wangi Pandan Sari1, Nugroho Dewayanto1
1Graduate Program in System Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, 55281, Indonesia
*Corresponding author. Email: fajarprimazonaamdarso@mail.ugm.ac.id
Corresponding Author
Fajar Primazona Amdarso
Available Online 24 May 2026.
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6239-687-6_29How to use a DOI?
Keywords
Fertilizer Distribution Planning; Time Series Forecasting; KNIME Analytics Platform
Abstract

Fertilizer is essential to Indonesia’s agricultural productivity, yet subsidized fertilizer distribution often suffers from supply and demand mismatch. This study discusses the forecasting of subsidized fertilizer demand, particularly NPK Phonska fertilizer in Central Java. The forecasted demand data is intended to support distribution planning and assist in estimating warehouse capacity. The SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) method was applied to 29 regional / sales area time series using KNIME, an open-source analytic platform that simplifies complex modeling tasks. Model performance was evaluated using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and model provided satisfactory result in most of sales areas. While accuracy varied across regions due to external factors such as climate variability and policy constraints, the results demonstrate that SARIMA, combined with KNIME, is an effective and scalable tool for regional-level fertilizer demand forecasting.

Copyright
© 2026 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the 8th Mechanical and Industrial Engineering Symposium (MIE 2025)
Series
Atlantis Highlights in Engineering
Publication Date
24 May 2026
ISBN
978-94-6239-687-6
ISSN
2589-4943
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6239-687-6_29How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2026 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

Cite this article

risenwbib
TY  - CONF
AU  - Fajar Primazona Amdarso
AU  - Wangi Pandan Sari
AU  - Nugroho Dewayanto
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/05/24
TI  - Demand Forecasting of NPK Phonska Fertilizer in Central Java Using SARIMA Method
BT  - Proceedings of the 8th Mechanical and Industrial Engineering Symposium (MIE 2025)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 427
EP  - 438
SN  - 2589-4943
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6239-687-6_29
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6239-687-6_29
ID  - Amdarso2026
ER  -