Proceedings of the 2022 Annual Technology, Applied Science and Engineering Conference (ATASEC 2022)

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Genetic Algorithms for Holt Winter Exponential Smoothing Parameter Optimization in Indonesian Car Sales Forecasting

Authors
Mamluatul Hani’ah1, *, Ika Kusumaning Putri1, Ariadi Retno Tri Hayati Ririd1
1Department of Information Technology, State Polytechnic of Malang, Malang, Indonesia
*Corresponding author. Email: mamluatulhaniah@polinema.ac.id
Corresponding Author
Mamluatul Hani’ah
Available Online 29 December 2022.
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6463-106-7_15How to use a DOI?
Keywords
Forecasting; Hybrid Method; Genetic Algorithm; Holt-Winter Exponential Smoothing; Regression
Abstract

The Indonesian automotive industry contributed significantly to the economy. Indonesia has 22 automotive companies that have been operating and have helped absorb many employees. Sales forecasting is considered as future market demand. So that accurate sales forecasting can be used as one of the decision supports for production planning. This study proposes an integration of a genetic algorithm with Holt-Winters exponential smoothing (GA-HW) in Indonesian Car Sales Forecasting. The proposed method can provide Highly Accurate forecasting results for the Toyota, Daihatsu, and Suzuki brands using both GA-MHW and GA-AHW models. Meanwhile, the proposed method on Honda brand provides good forecasting results. MAPE Comparison between the pro-posed method and golden section – HW gave the conclusion that the proposed method outperformed the golden section – HW.

Copyright
© 2022 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the 2022 Annual Technology, Applied Science and Engineering Conference (ATASEC 2022)
Series
Advances in Engineering Research
Publication Date
29 December 2022
ISBN
10.2991/978-94-6463-106-7_15
ISSN
2352-5401
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6463-106-7_15How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2022 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

Cite this article

risenwbib
TY  - CONF
AU  - Mamluatul Hani’ah
AU  - Ika Kusumaning Putri
AU  - Ariadi Retno Tri Hayati Ririd
PY  - 2022
DA  - 2022/12/29
TI  - Genetic Algorithms for Holt Winter Exponential Smoothing Parameter Optimization in Indonesian Car Sales Forecasting
BT  - Proceedings of the 2022 Annual Technology, Applied Science and Engineering Conference (ATASEC 2022)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 159
EP  - 171
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-106-7_15
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6463-106-7_15
ID  - Hani’ah2022
ER  -