Proceedings of the 2026 4th International Conference on Digital Economy and Management Science (CDEMS 2026)

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Extreme Climate Risks and Economic Recovery: Evidence from Chinese Provincial Panel Data

Authors
Xiaoyu Shi1, *
1School of Computing and Data Science, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
*Corresponding author. Email: u3612813@connect.hku.hk
Corresponding Author
Xiaoyu Shi
Available Online 2 June 2026.
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6239-699-9_32How to use a DOI?
Keywords
climate risk; economic recovery; provincial GDP; China
Abstract

This paper examines the impact of extreme climate risks on provincial economic performance in China using panel data for 31 provinces over the period 2004–2023. It employs a two-way fixed-effects model to estimate the relationship between the Climate Physical Risk Index (CPRI) and provincial GDP. The analysis further explores heterogeneity across four specific disaster types—low temperature, high temperature, rainfall, and drought—and tests whether climate risks exert persistent effects through lagged specifications. The results show that climate physical risk is negatively associated with provincial GDP, indicating that climate-related shocks can weaken regional economic performance. Among the disaggregated indicators, rainfall-related risk appears to be the main driver of this negative effect. By contrast, the lagged-effect results do not provide robust evidence of persistent long-term impacts. Overall, the findings suggest that the economic consequences of climate disasters in China are concentrated mainly in the short run, highlighting the importance of disaster response, regional fiscal support, and climate risk management for improving economic resilience.

Copyright
© 2026 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the 2026 4th International Conference on Digital Economy and Management Science (CDEMS 2026)
Series
Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research
Publication Date
2 June 2026
ISBN
978-94-6239-699-9
ISSN
2352-5428
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6239-699-9_32How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2026 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

Cite this article

risenwbib
TY  - CONF
AU  - Xiaoyu Shi
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/06/02
TI  - Extreme Climate Risks and Economic Recovery: Evidence from Chinese Provincial Panel Data
BT  - Proceedings of the 2026 4th International Conference on Digital Economy and Management Science (CDEMS 2026)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 296
EP  - 305
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6239-699-9_32
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6239-699-9_32
ID  - Shi2026
ER  -