Prediction of Pumping Unit Well System Efficiency Based on Chaotic Time Series Method

DOI

10.2991/cimns-18.2018.32How to use a DOI?

Keywords

pumping unit well; system efficiency; chaotic time series; phase space reconstruction; C-C method; forecasting

Abstract

The system efficiency prediction of pumping unit well always plays an important part in dynamic analysis of oil field production. The system efficiency of pumping unit well is restricted by a variety of factors, which is extremely complex. Ideal effect cannot be realized when applying structural causal models to forecast it. The chaotic time series forecasting model of system efficiency for pumping unit well is established in this paper; C-C method is used to determine the embedding dimension of phase space reconstruction parameters and delay time; the maximum Lyapunov exponent, which is figured out through small-data method, is used to detect the chaos of time series; the system efficiency of pumping unit well is predicted through univariate and multivariate time series forecasting method. The experiment verifies that chaotic time series forecasting method can be used in accurate system efficiency forecasting.

Copyright

© 2018, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Chaodong Tan
AU  - Zhenhua Peng
AU  - Gang Feng
AU  - Ruogu Yang
AU  - Lijie Gao
PY  - 2018/11
DA  - 2018/11
TI  - Prediction of Pumping Unit Well System Efficiency Based on Chaotic Time Series Method
BT  - Proceedings of the 2018 3rd International Conference on Communications, Information Management and Network Security (CIMNS 2018)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 142
EP  - 146
SN  - 2352-538X
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/cimns-18.2018.32
DO  - 10.2991/cimns-18.2018.32
ID  - Tan2018/11
ER  -