Risk Assessment of Land Reclamation Investment Projects
Irina Yurchenko, Vladimir Vanzha, Mikhail Bandurin, Victor Volosukhin, Inna Bandurinа
Available Online February 2019.
- https://doi.org/10.2991/csis-18.2019.45How to use a DOI?
- risk assessment; analysis methods; investment project
- The specific investment projects and the use of effective innovative methods of effectiveness calculation of the planned activities are important factors in profitable capital investment. The authors prove the need of studying the effectiveness assess of investments in land development using a common economic theory. It aims to speed up the formation of the methodical directions of accounting risks meeting the reclamation practices requirements. The purpose of the study is to improve the theory of assessment effectiveness of reclamation activities on the basis of synthesis, analysis and development of the effectiveness output of specific investment projects considering the risks. The analysis of the economic efficiency of the LRIP is based on the investment activities of the federal target program "Land reclamation development of agricultural land in Russia for 2014-2020." The investment usefulness in the federal target program activities of land development considering risk assessment was realized by methods of qualitative and quantitative analysis: sensitivity and scenario analysis. In the process of qualitative analysis significant risk factors are: an increase in investment costs, in discounting rate, a change in operating costs and purchasing of prices for agricultural products. It is shown that the pure present project value is the most dependent on discount rate. It is due to the exponential dependence of the future value of money from this parameter. The risk level of program implementation calculated by scenario analysis is 13.5%. This demonstrates investment feasibility in its implementation. The need for normative and methodological improvement of the current tools risk evaluations is demonstrated. It is based on the automated assessment of LRIP risks by the method of Monte Carlo.
- Open Access
- This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license.
Cite this article
TY - CONF AU - Irina Yurchenko AU - Vladimir Vanzha AU - Mikhail Bandurin AU - Victor Volosukhin AU - Inna Bandurinа PY - 2019/02 DA - 2019/02 TI - Risk Assessment of Land Reclamation Investment Projects BT - International Conference Communicative Strategies of Information Society (CSIS 2018) PB - Atlantis Press SP - 216 EP - 221 SN - 2352-5398 UR - https://doi.org/10.2991/csis-18.2019.45 DO - https://doi.org/10.2991/csis-18.2019.45 ID - Yurchenko2019/02 ER -