Proceedings of the 2026 2nd International Conference on Data Mining and Project Management (DMPM 2026)

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Does a Public Pension Improve Rural Livelihoods?

Authors
Ziyun Wang1, Zhe Li2, *, Wenze Xiong3
1Hainan Vocational University of Science and Technology, School of Accounting, Haikou, 571126, China
2City University of Macau, Faculty of Finance, Macau, 999078, China
3University of Auckland, School of Business, Auckland, 1010, New Zealand
*Corresponding author. Email: F25092100152@cityu.edu.mo
Corresponding Author
Zhe Li
Available Online 28 May 2026.
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6239-689-0_19How to use a DOI?
Keywords
New Rural Social Pension Insurance; rural income; rural consumption; difference in differences; provincial panel data
Abstract

This paper evaluates the impact of the New Rural Social Pension Insurance (NRSP) pilot on rural income and consumption in China. Using provincial panel data for 2000 to 2021, we estimate a difference-in-differences model with province and year fixed effects as well as province-specific linear trends. In the analysis, any province with a raw pilot start before 2009 is recoded to 2009 in order to align treatment timing with the official launch of the NRSP. Under this policy-consistent timing rule, the preferred specification shows that the NRSP pilot is associated with increases of approximately 39 per cent in rural per capita disposable income and 32 per cent in rural per capita consumption expenditure. Richer fiscal and rural-development controls leave the positive association intact, and short-run coefficients are also statistically significant. Supplementary province-year financial regressions based on county-aggregated deposit and loan balances do not provide statistically precise evidence on the savings or debt-repayment channel. The study therefore offers policy-relevant macro evidence while clarifying the identification limits that remain under a more historically consistent treatment coding.

Copyright
© 2026 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the 2026 2nd International Conference on Data Mining and Project Management (DMPM 2026)
Series
Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research
Publication Date
28 May 2026
ISBN
978-94-6239-689-0
ISSN
2352-5428
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6239-689-0_19How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2026 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

Cite this article

risenwbib
TY  - CONF
AU  - Ziyun Wang
AU  - Zhe Li
AU  - Wenze Xiong
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/05/28
TI  - Does a Public Pension Improve Rural Livelihoods?
BT  - Proceedings of the 2026 2nd International Conference on Data Mining and Project Management (DMPM 2026)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 196
EP  - 202
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6239-689-0_19
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6239-689-0_19
ID  - Wang2026
ER  -