Leslie Model-based Population Forecast of Henan Province under the Universal Two-child Policy

DOI

10.2991/ecss-19.2019.27How to use a DOI?

Keywords

The Universal Two-child Policy; Leslie Population Forecast Model; Population Size; Population Structure.

Abstract

In recent years, in order to alleviate the social aging problems and enlarge the newborn population, China has gradually adjusted the fertility policy to the Universal Two-child Policy. Future population development in China has also become the focus of a lot of studies. This paper uses the 2010 census data and the Henan Yearbook statistics to revise the fertility parameters in Leslie population forecasting model considering the Universal Two-child Policy. This paper adopts both the original model and the revised one to do the prediction of the future population of Henan Province, and compares the results as to the population development trend and population structure change. Using the revised Leslie model to make population prediction, we can better provide an objective basis for improving social education, employment, pension and other policy adjustment.

Copyright

© 2019, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Jiao Zhang
AU  - Dan Chang
PY  - 2019/04
DA  - 2019/04
TI  - Leslie Model-based Population Forecast of Henan Province under the Universal Two-child Policy
BT  - Proceedings of the 1st International Symposium on Education, Culture and Social Sciences (ECSS 2019)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 134
EP  - 140
SN  - 2352-5398
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/ecss-19.2019.27
DO  - 10.2991/ecss-19.2019.27
ID  - Zhang2019/04
ER  -