The Price Forecast Model of China-made Large Aircraft Based on Partial Least Squares Regression

DOI

10.2991/emeit.2012.5How to use a DOI?

Keywords

domestic large aircraft, price forecast, partial least squares regression, discount factor, mathematical model

Abstract

This article adopts partial least squares regression method to forecast the price of domestic (China-made) large aircraft C919. With analysis of the pricing background and the relationship between performance index and price of foreign aircraft, we build preliminary model. And comparing with other modeling methods by calculating average relative error, we find the preliminary model fits better. Considering the difference in environment between domestic and foreign market, we propose the concept of discount factor. And the factor is equal to 0.6529 by analyzing domestic and foreign small aircrafts of the same type. Finally through modified model we get the forecast price, namely 48.95 million dollars per aircraft. The forecasting model and discount factor have some reference value to the price forecast of domestic large aircraft.

Copyright

© 2012, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Pei Fang
AU  - Lu Wang
AU  - Shuhua Mao
PY  - 2012/09
DA  - 2012/09
TI  - The Price Forecast Model of China-made Large Aircraft Based on Partial Least Squares Regression
BT  - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Electronic & Mechanical Engineering and Information Technology (EMEIT 2012)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 22
EP  - 26
SN  - 1951-6851
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/emeit.2012.5
DO  - 10.2991/emeit.2012.5
ID  - Fang2012/09
ER  -