From Correlation to Causality: Mechanism Identification and Multi-Objective Optimization for Flight Carbon Emissions

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6239-703-3_10How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Aviation Carbon Emissions; Data Fusion; Causal Inference; Multi-Objective Optimization; Flight Route Optimization

Abstract

To address the challenges of carbon emission governance in the aviation industry, this paper proposes a dynamic flight route optimization framework leveraging multi-modal data fusion and causal inference. The framework begins by integrating flight parameters with meteorological data to identify key drivers of carbon emissions through multi-modal feature extraction and selection. Subsequently, a double machine learning model is employed for causal inference, which reveals that the interaction between meteorological conditions and flight operation parameters is a core mechanism influencing emissions. On this basis, a multi-objective optimization algorithm (NSGA-III) is constructed to achieve carbon reduction goals while ensuring operational safety and efficiency. Empirical results demonstrate that this framework can achieve an average reduction of 8.86% in carbon emissions on domestic trunk routes. Counterfactual verification confirms the robustness and feasibility of the optimization strategy. This research provides a data-driven decision support tool for the aviation industry and offers a reference for environmental governance methods in complex transportation systems.

Copyright

© 2026 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Beichen Zhao
AU  - Gaonan Geng
AU  - Tiansen Liu
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/06/08
TI  - From Correlation to Causality: Mechanism Identification and Multi-Objective Optimization for Flight Carbon Emissions
BT  - Proceedings of the 2026 2nd International Conference on Engineering Management and Safety Engineering (EMSE 2026)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 105
EP  - 120
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6239-703-3_10
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6239-703-3_10
ID  - Zhao2026
ER  -