Analyze the Outpatient Cost Structure Change after the Comprehensive Reform of Public Hospitals by the Least Squares Trend Seasonal Multiplication Model
- 10.2991/essaeme-18.2018.71How to use a DOI?
- outpatient, expenditure structure, comprehensive reform, least squares trend seasonal multiplication mode
Background: To find out the seasonal variation rule of outpatient expenditure structure from 2013 to 2016, and predict the outpatient cost structure change in 2017 by the least squares trend seasonal multiplication model, and analyze the effect after the comprehensive reform of public hospitals. Methods: Collect the outpatient cost data from 2013 to 2016. The least squares method was applied to calculate the monthly seasonal ratio, and to fit the linear trend equation. Then the trend was rejected, checking and the final trend prediction was carried out, and the interval prediction was carried out with a confidence level of 95%. Results: The actual average medicine cost of outpatient in 2017 began to lower than left interval value of the forecast range from July. Inspection fees and test fees also tend to within the scope of the predicted values. However, the diagnosis and examination fees, operation fees, bed fees, Chinese herbal medicine fee is higher than the right interval value of the predicted values. Conclusion: By comparing the predicted values of 2017 outpatient cost structure and the actual production, we found that in accordance with the comprehensive reform of public hospitals structural price adjustment, the cost of medicine, inspection fees and inspection fees were reduced, the costs of diagnosis, surgery, nursing, traditional Chinese medical that can reflect personnel technical services value have increased. The comprehensive reform of public hospitals has significant effect.
- © 2018, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
- Open Access
- This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).
Cite this article
TY - CONF AU - Meiqin Wang AU - Qingbin Wu AU - Yu Meng PY - 2018/07 DA - 2018/07 TI - Analyze the Outpatient Cost Structure Change after the Comprehensive Reform of Public Hospitals by the Least Squares Trend Seasonal Multiplication Model BT - Proceedings of the 2018 4th International Conference on Economics, Social Science, Arts, Education and Management Engineering (ESSAEME 2018) PB - Atlantis Press SP - 385 EP - 390 SN - 2352-5398 UR - https://doi.org/10.2991/essaeme-18.2018.71 DO - 10.2991/essaeme-18.2018.71 ID - Wang2018/07 ER -