A Research on Deviation of Analysts Forecast -Based on Chinese Stock Market

DOI

10.2991/icacsei.2013.112How to use a DOI?

Keywords

analyst forecast, consistent prediction, rational forecast, bold forecast

Abstract

This Study extends prior research on analyst forecast and market price discovery. Based on data of Chinese stock market, I found that security analysts’ accuracy of earnings forecasts shows a weak maintenance and their accuracy increases with the boldness of their forecasts. Chinese analysts appear more cautious and show much more herding behavior than their counterparts of the developed markets. Positively biased forecasts are also observed in Chinese market and I proved that this can’t be explained by the skewness theory, which then leads to the fact that analysts don’t behave according to mean absolute error loss functions. However bold forecast do provide more information than herding forecasts after we control for firm, analyst and the other revision characteristics.

Copyright

© 2013, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Wei guo Xiao
AU  - Yu rui Huang
PY  - 2013/08
DA  - 2013/08
TI  - A Research on Deviation of Analysts Forecast -Based on Chinese Stock Market
BT  - Proceedings of the 2013 International Conference on Advanced Computer Science and Electronics Information (ICACSEI 2013)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 453
EP  - 455
SN  - 1951-6851
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/icacsei.2013.112
DO  - 10.2991/icacsei.2013.112
ID  - Xiao2013/08
ER  -