Proceedings of the 2022 2nd International Conference on Economic Development and Business Culture (ICEDBC 2022)

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Prediction of COMEX Gold Futures Prices During the Epidemic Based on the ARIMA Model

Authors
Xinyue Feng1, Zhixuan Fu2, *, Xingyi Li3
1School of Economics and Management, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092, China
2School of Nursing, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 0074, China
3Fowler College of Business, San Diego State University, San Diego, 92115, USA
*Corresponding author. Email: u201912747@hust.edu.cn
Corresponding Author
Zhixuan Fu
Available Online 31 December 2022.
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6463-036-7_152How to use a DOI?
Keywords
COVID-19; Demand and supply; Arima model; Prediction
ABSTRACT

Since the COVID-19 appeared in 2019, the price of gold futures has been quite different from the past. We analyzed the supply and demand of gold futures during the epidemic and found some of the reasons for the rise in gold futures prices. Besides, we expect to use the ARIMA to model the COMEX gold futures price during the epidemic and we choose 589 data from December 2, 2019, to April 4, 2022. After some testing, we found that the ARIMA(1,1,3) quite fit the actual prices, although a few points have a large gap between the predicted value and the actual value. We roughly divide these points into three intervals. By analyzing these points, we get the direction of improving the accuracy of this model and give some suggestions in the article. This article can help investors predict the price of COMEX gold futures in a short period, but it cannot completely avoid the impact of some events that have huge fluctuations in the international economy.

Copyright
© 2022 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the 2022 2nd International Conference on Economic Development and Business Culture (ICEDBC 2022)
Series
Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research
Publication Date
31 December 2022
ISBN
10.2991/978-94-6463-036-7_152
ISSN
2352-5428
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6463-036-7_152How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2022 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

Cite this article

risenwbib
TY  - CONF
AU  - Xinyue Feng
AU  - Zhixuan Fu
AU  - Xingyi Li
PY  - 2022
DA  - 2022/12/31
TI  - Prediction of COMEX Gold Futures Prices During the Epidemic Based on the ARIMA Model
BT  - Proceedings of the 2022 2nd International Conference on Economic Development and Business Culture (ICEDBC 2022)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 1032
EP  - 1039
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-036-7_152
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6463-036-7_152
ID  - Feng2022
ER  -