The Unified Cycle Study of Global Financial Markets and Macro Indicators

DOI

10.2991/aebmr.k.220603.018How to use a DOI?

Keywords

economic cycle; Fourier transformation; complex system

Abstract

Complex systems generally refer to intelligent and adaptive systems, whose internal relations are complex and undetectable, and can only be analyzed through signals of certain dimensions. The economic system is such a complex system, and the global economy is a complex system containing many sub-systems (national economies of different countries). Complex system has certain natural frequency or periodicity, and as the system goes on, there is a trend of synchronization within the system. Based on this, the periodicity shown by financial and economic data can be understood as the performance of fixed frequency of complex system in different observation dimensions. In this article, we analyze several market indexes which cover the global stock market, bond market, commodity market and foreign exchange market, as well as main macro indicators (CPI and GDP). We take the advantage of Fourier transformation and linear regression to investigate their periodicity, and find that both global financial markets and macro-economy are somewhat cyclical, with unified periods concentrated at about 4 years and 10 years.

Copyright

© 2022 The Authors. Published by Atlantis Press International B.V.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC 4.0 license.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - BaoYu Yin
PY  - 2022
DA  - 2022/07/01
TI  - The Unified Cycle Study of Global Financial Markets and Macro Indicators
BT  - Proceedings of the 2022 2nd International Conference on Enterprise Management and Economic Development (ICEMED 2022)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 95
EP  - 103
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.220603.018
DO  - 10.2991/aebmr.k.220603.018
ID  - Yin2022
ER  -