The Application of Time Series Analysis in Financial Revenue of China

DOI

10.2991/icemse-17.2017.68How to use a DOI?

Keywords

time series, fiscal revenue, tax revenue, forecast

Abstract

The impact tax revenue on fiscal revenue is getting bigger. It is of great significance to predict fiscal revenue and analyze the impact of tax on China's economic development according to historical data. The time series analysis and prediction method is to reveal the rule that the phenomenon changes with time based on the historical statistical data of the sequence, and then predict the future trend according to this rule. The purpose of this paper is to predict base on the historical data of fiscal revenue and to analyze the impact of tax revenue on fiscal revenue. It analyzes the modeling process of the time series model, and selects the financial revenue and tax revenue data of the National Bureau of statistics for the last 20 years. First of all, we only use the historical data of fiscal revenue to predict it, then combine the tax revenue data to make integration test, and establish the error correction model with the help of Eviews6.0 software. In this paper, the application of time series and co-integration test are the innovation point, finally, we draw a conclusion that tax revenue plays an important role in the government revenue of long and short time.

Copyright

© 2017, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

Download article (PDF)

TY  - CONF
AU  - Jianna Zhao
AU  - Di Xin
PY  - 2017/12
DA  - 2017/12
TI  - The Application of Time Series Analysis in Financial Revenue of China
BT  - Proceedings of the 2017 2nd International Conference on Education, Management Science and Economics (ICEMSE 2017)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 279
EP  - 283
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/icemse-17.2017.68
DO  - 10.2991/icemse-17.2017.68
ID  - Zhao2017/12
ER  -