Proceedings of the 2019 International Conference on Management, Education Technology and Economics (ICMETE 2019)

Establishment of Multivariate Linear and Logarithmic Function Mixed Model to Predict Economic Trend Based on 2005-2015 Data

Authors
Huimin Zou, Jiayi Wu
Corresponding Author
Huimin Zou
Available Online May 2019.
DOI
https://doi.org/10.2991/icmete-19.2019.143How to use a DOI?
Keywords
Mixed model of multiple linear and logarithmic functions; eviews; Population size; Length of education Educational appropriations
Abstract
According to the China Statistical Yearbook, the data of 2005-2015 were found. Eviews was used to establish a multiple linear regression model. The model did not pass the t test. Then a mixed model of multiple linear and logarithmic functions was established. The economic significance test, statistical test, econometric test and prediction test of the model were all passed, and the goodness of fit was close to 1. Secondly, we used this model to forecast the economic growth trend in the coming years. In the future, the decline of population growth rate (aging) would lead to the slowdown of economic growth. From the model, it can be seen that the economic growth rate was closely related to population growth. The downward trend of economic growth rate was irreversible and can only be delayed. Finally, from the perspective of the model, length of education was the second factor affecting economic development, so we suggested to the government: (1) Open the multi-child policy (or the three-child policy); (2) Implement general education to increase the length of education for all Reach to delay the downward trend of GDP.
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Proceedings
2019 International Conference on Management, Education Technology and Economics (ICMETE 2019)
Part of series
Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research
Publication Date
May 2019
ISBN
978-94-6252-725-6
ISSN
2352-5428
DOI
https://doi.org/10.2991/icmete-19.2019.143How to use a DOI?
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license.

Cite this article

TY  - CONF
AU  - Huimin Zou
AU  - Jiayi Wu
PY  - 2019/05
DA  - 2019/05
TI  - Establishment of Multivariate Linear and Logarithmic Function Mixed Model to Predict Economic Trend Based on 2005-2015 Data
BT  - 2019 International Conference on Management, Education Technology and Economics (ICMETE 2019)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/icmete-19.2019.143
DO  - https://doi.org/10.2991/icmete-19.2019.143
ID  - Zou2019/05
ER  -