Proceedings of the International Conference on Banking, Accounting, Management, and Economics (ICOBAME 2018)

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Study of Perspective and Prospective Aspects on Indonesia Balance of Payment in 1980-2017

Authors
Gregorius Nasiansenus Masdjojo, Alimudin Rizal Rifai, Sri Isnowati, Mohamad Fauzan
Corresponding Author
Gregorius Nasiansenus Masdjojo
Available Online July 2019.
DOI
10.2991/icobame-18.2019.26How to use a DOI?
Keywords
foreign reserves; Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payment (MABP); Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH)
Abstract

This study aims to analyze the influence of Interest Rate, Economic Growth, Domestic Credit and Foreign Exchange against Foreign Reserves. The analysis is based on Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payment (MABP) theory. The object of research is the value of Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserve. This study uses quarterly time series data from 1980 to 2017. Data analysis methods used are Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) with GARCH (1.1), ARCH in mean (ARCH-M), Threshold ARCH (TARCH) and GARCH (1,1) with the Variant Regressor. The selection of the best model is based on the level of significance, the value of Akaike Info Criterion (AIC) and Schwarz Criterion. The selected model is the TARCH estimation method. Based on the TARCH output, it can be concluded that all independent variables have significant effect on the Foreign Exchange Reserve, except Domestic Credit. The direction of the relationship of each variable is consistent with the theory of Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payment (MABP).

Copyright
© 2019, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the International Conference on Banking, Accounting, Management, and Economics (ICOBAME 2018)
Series
Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research
Publication Date
July 2019
ISBN
10.2991/icobame-18.2019.26
ISSN
2352-5428
DOI
10.2991/icobame-18.2019.26How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2019, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

Cite this article

risenwbib
TY  - CONF
AU  - Gregorius Nasiansenus Masdjojo
AU  - Alimudin Rizal Rifai
AU  - Sri Isnowati
AU  - Mohamad Fauzan
PY  - 2019/07
DA  - 2019/07
TI  - Study of Perspective and Prospective Aspects on Indonesia Balance of Payment in 1980-2017
BT  - Proceedings of the International Conference on Banking, Accounting, Management, and Economics (ICOBAME 2018)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 118
EP  - 121
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/icobame-18.2019.26
DO  - 10.2991/icobame-18.2019.26
ID  - Masdjojo2019/07
ER  -