Proceedings of the International Conference on Contemporary Risk Studies (ICONIC-RS 2025)

International Conference on Contemporary Risk Studies (ICONIC-RS 2025)

📍Jakarta, Indonesia🗓️ 8 October 2025
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Economic Risks of Trump 2.0 Tariff on Indonesia’s Export Performance and Industrial Sector: GTAP Model

Authors
Muhammad Royhan Alamsyah1, *, Eka Puspitawati1
1Universitas Pertamina, Jl. Teuku Nyak Arief, Simprug, Kebayoran Lama, Jakarta, Indonesia
*Corresponding author. Email: 103222013@student.universitaspertamina.ac.id
Corresponding Author
Muhammad Royhan Alamsyah
Available Online 8 July 2026.
DOI
10.2991/978-2-38476-595-9_5How to use a DOI?
Keywords
Tariff reciprocal; export; industry; Indonesia; US; GTAP
Abstract

President Trump’s re-election has brought global economic uncertainty through the implementation of increased reciprocal tariffs imposed on many countries, including Indonesia. This study aims to analyze the effects of the US tariff policy during Trump’s second term on Indonesia’s export performance and industrial sectors. The analysis employs secondary data and the GTAP model version 11. The results indicate that Indonesia is likely to face economic risks in the form of declines in GDP, output, investment, and exports. At the microeconomic level, plant-based fibers, wheat, and metals nec emerge as sectors experiencing the largest positive impacts, while the manufacturing industry, wearing apparel, rubber and plastic products, textiles, and crops face the greatest threats of output contraction. These findings provide important policy implications for Indonesia in designing national strategies to strengthen trade resilience, particularly through export market diversification, industrial sector adjustment, and enhanced engagement in regional and multilateral trade frameworks to mitigate external trade shocks.

Copyright
© 2026 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the International Conference on Contemporary Risk Studies (ICONIC-RS 2025)
Series
Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research
Publication Date
8 July 2026
ISBN
978-2-38476-595-9
ISSN
2352-5428
DOI
10.2991/978-2-38476-595-9_5How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2026 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

Cite this article

risenwbib
TY  - CONF
AU  - Muhammad Royhan Alamsyah
AU  - Eka Puspitawati
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/07/08
TI  - Economic Risks of Trump 2.0 Tariff on Indonesia’s Export Performance and Industrial Sector: GTAP Model
BT  - Proceedings of the  International Conference on Contemporary Risk Studies (ICONIC-RS 2025)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 55
EP  - 68
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-2-38476-595-9_5
DO  - 10.2991/978-2-38476-595-9_5
ID  - Alamsyah2026
ER  -