Proceedings of the International Conference on Trade 2019 (ICOT 2019)

Trade Policy Evaluation on Rubber and Palm Oil

Authors
Kumara Jati, Wibowo Kurniawan, Arie Mardiansyah, Muhammad Fawaiq, Rino Adi Nugroho, Deky Paryadi
Corresponding Author
Kumara Jati
Available Online September 2019.
DOI
10.2991/icot-19.2019.39How to use a DOI?
Keywords
Trade Policy, Rubber and Palm Oil Price, ARMA-ARCH/GARCH, Structural Time-Series Model (STSM)
Abstract

Rubber and palm oil are the two main export commodities that contribute to economic development in Indonesia. Specific trade policy has to be implemented when export commodity prices fluctuating or increasing or decreasing rapidly in the short period of time. The research purpose is to write a trade policy evaluation on rubber and palm oil using ARMA-ARCH/GARCH and structural time-series model. This study shows that price movement aspect is very important to evaluate the trade policy. The results of the analysis using Autoregressive and Moving Average and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity/Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARMA-ARCH/GARCH) indicate that past price factors can be used to predict future prices. The Structural Time-Series Model (STSM) shows that the price of rubber and palm oil in 2020 and 2021 is expected to be relatively stable. The relevant trade authorities need to maximize the public services related to the price predictions and upcoming policy in order to maintain export stability in the short and long terms so that it can be utilized to the greatest extent possible for development of Indonesia.

Copyright
© 2019, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the International Conference on Trade 2019 (ICOT 2019)
Series
Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research
Publication Date
September 2019
ISBN
978-94-6252-798-0
ISSN
2352-5428
DOI
10.2991/icot-19.2019.39How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2019, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

Cite this article

TY  - CONF
AU  - Kumara Jati
AU  - Wibowo Kurniawan
AU  - Arie Mardiansyah
AU  - Muhammad Fawaiq
AU  - Rino Adi Nugroho
AU  - Deky Paryadi
PY  - 2019/09
DA  - 2019/09
TI  - Trade Policy Evaluation on Rubber and Palm Oil
BT  - Proceedings of the International Conference on Trade 2019 (ICOT 2019)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 185
EP  - 189
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/icot-19.2019.39
DO  - 10.2991/icot-19.2019.39
ID  - Jati2019/09
ER  -