Proceedings of the International Conference on Science and Engineering (ICSE-UIN-SUKA 2021)

Bayesian Competing Risk Model for Medical Data

Authors
Nadya Devana1, Sarini Abdullah1, *
1Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, University of Indonesia, Depok, Indonesia
*Corresponding author. Email: sarini@sci.ui.ac.id
Corresponding Author
Sarini Abdullah
Available Online 23 December 2021.
DOI
https://doi.org/10.2991/aer.k.211222.003How to use a DOI?
Keywords
Bayesian approach; flat prior; gestational time; MCMC; survival analysis
Abstract

Problems considering group assignment is often found in health area, where the groups represent whether a patient will be recovered or not, at high risk of relapse or not, and many other. While the occurrence of these events could be modelled using classification methods, more insights on the time of occurrence is cannot be provided. Thus, a more comprehensive method is required, which could be answered by the survival model. Competing risk model is one of the statistical methods that could be used for modelling the occurrence of several competing events, in which we can produce not just the probability of the events occurrence, but more specifically the probability of that events at a given time period. In this study, we propose the use of Bayesian competing risk model to predict whether a patient will give birth under the complication of Pre-Eclampsia (PE) condition, for a given gestational time. Data on patients in their first trimester of pregnancy from one of the hospitals in Jakarta were used in the analysis. Non-informative prior distributions were set for the parameters, data were assumed to follow a Weibull distribution, and upon obtaining the posterior distribution, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) was implemented for posterior sampling. The result showed fast convergence, as only 30,000 iterations are required to achieve it, and several important predictors were identified.

Copyright
© 2021 The Authors. Published by Atlantis Press International B.V.
Open Access
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC license.

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the International Conference on Science and Engineering (ICSE-UIN-SUKA 2021)
Series
Advances in Engineering Research
Publication Date
23 December 2021
ISBN
978-94-6239-494-0
ISSN
2352-5401
DOI
https://doi.org/10.2991/aer.k.211222.003How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2021 The Authors. Published by Atlantis Press International B.V.
Open Access
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC license.

Cite this article

TY  - CONF
AU  - Nadya Devana
AU  - Sarini Abdullah
PY  - 2021
DA  - 2021/12/23
TI  - Bayesian Competing Risk Model for Medical Data
BT  - Proceedings of the International Conference on Science and Engineering (ICSE-UIN-SUKA 2021)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 12
EP  - 19
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/aer.k.211222.003
DO  - https://doi.org/10.2991/aer.k.211222.003
ID  - Devana2021
ER  -