Proceedings of the International Conference on Science and Technology (ICST 2018)

Reviewing Government Policy on Rice Price: Study Through Rice Price In East Java Market

Authors
Zainal Abidin, Resti Prastika Destiarni, Fanny Septya
Corresponding Author
Resti Prastika Destiarni
Available Online December 2018.
DOI
https://doi.org/10.2991/icst-18.2018.126How to use a DOI?
Keywords
ARIMA, Forecasting, Government policy, Rice price
Abstract
That HET is considered too low to absorp farmer’s rice so that rice processing industry becomes farmer’s choice to sell rice and their product become choice on middle and upper class consumer, especially urban society. This research was conducted to analyze the HET policy by forecasting on rice price through study in East Java market during 12 months later (June 2019). This research got a monthly rice price in East Java during January 2014 – June 2018 which was obtained from SIKAPERBAPO Department of Industry and Trade East Java Province [13]. There were three kinds of rice which would be forecasted. They were Bengawan, Mentik, and IR64. The forecasting is conducted using ARIMA method. Based on ARIMA method, the best ARIMA to forecast the price and support the review that rice policy is unsuitable are ARIMA (4, 1, 2) for bengawan rice, ARIMA (3, 1, 2) for mentik rice, and ARIMA (2, 1, 2) for IR64 rice. It is important to review again about policy of rice HET by considering supply and demand on rice maket. The indication of monopolistic behaviour on rice market could not be denied in line with the development of rice as consumer goods. If in this case BULOG (Logistic Affair Agency) takes a role on rice downstream, it is necessary to review again related to the determination of HET and supported facilities to improve rice brand of local farmer so that farmer share and bargaining position of farmer increases.
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license.

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the International Conference on Science and Technology (ICST 2018)
Series
Atlantis Highlights in Engineering
Publication Date
December 2018
ISBN
978-94-6252-650-1
ISSN
2589-4943
DOI
https://doi.org/10.2991/icst-18.2018.126How to use a DOI?
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license.

Cite this article

TY  - CONF
AU  - Zainal Abidin
AU  - Resti Prastika Destiarni
AU  - Fanny Septya
PY  - 2018/12
DA  - 2018/12
TI  - Reviewing Government Policy on Rice Price: Study Through Rice Price In East Java Market
BT  - Proceedings of the International Conference on Science and Technology (ICST 2018)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 614
EP  - 619
SN  - 2589-4943
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/icst-18.2018.126
DO  - https://doi.org/10.2991/icst-18.2018.126
ID  - Abidin2018/12
ER  -