Electricity sales forecasting of Z province based on SARIMA model and temperature correction

DOI

10.2991/isrme-15.2015.117How to use a DOI?

Keywords

SARIMA Model; Electricity Sales Forecasting; Temperature Correction

Abstract

The sales of electricity have great effect on operation decisions and budget arrangement of power grid companies directly, so the accuracy of electricity sale forecasting is quite crucial. Since the sales of electricity data has obvious increase trend with time and seasonal variation characteristics, single ARIMA model cannot get ideal forecasting results. According to the monthly electricity sales data of Z Province from 2011 January to 2014 October, this paper builds SARIMA model and get high forecast precision. In addition, since the sales of electricity is affected by temperature obviously and there are many temperature anomaly days in Z Province in 2014 compared with previous years, this paper processed the temperature correction and further improved the prediction accuracy.

Copyright

© 2015, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Hao Feng
AU  - Jiao Fan
AU  - Guo-rong Zhu
AU  - Hui Xu
AU  - Dong-xiao Niu
AU  - Xiao-dan Guo
PY  - 2015/04
DA  - 2015/04
TI  - Electricity sales forecasting of Z province based on SARIMA model and temperature correction
BT  - Proceedings of the 2015 International Conference on Intelligent Systems Research and Mechatronics Engineering
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 558
EP  - 562
SN  - 1951-6851
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/isrme-15.2015.117
DO  - 10.2991/isrme-15.2015.117
ID  - Feng2015/04
ER  -