Application of Sensitivity Analysis, “Worst Case”, and Maximum Possible Risk (MPR) to Adventitious Events

DOI

10.2991/jcis.2008.12How to use a DOI?

Keywords

statistics, probability, risk analysis, bioterrorism, anthrax

Abstract

We present here a logical progression of probability and risk analysis for adventi-tious events, events whose probability is not well measurably different from zero (WMDZ). We will show that such analy-ses culminate in maximum possible risk (MPR) and, further, that MPR is equiva-lent to a boundary condition for classic sensitivity analysis when applied to events which are not WMDZ. Further, we shall show that use of counter-factual probabilities provides a good estimate of these boundary conditions.

Copyright

© 2008, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - T. Taylor
AU  - T. Whalen
AU  - M. Cohen
PY  - 2008/12
DA  - 2008/12
TI  - Application of Sensitivity Analysis, “Worst Case”, and Maximum Possible Risk (MPR) to Adventitious Events
BT  - Proceedings of the 11th Joint Conference on Information Sciences (JCIS 2008)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 73
EP  - 78
SN  - 1951-6851
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/jcis.2008.12
DO  - 10.2991/jcis.2008.12
ID  - Taylor2008/12
ER  -