11th Joint International Conference on Information Sciences

Application of Sensitivity Analysis, “Worst Case”, and Maximum Possible Risk (MPR) to Adventitious Events

Authors
T. Taylor 0, T. Whalen, M. Cohen
Corresponding Author
T. Taylor
0Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Available Online December 2008.
DOI
https://doi.org/10.2991/jcis.2008.12How to use a DOI?
Keywords
statistics, probability, risk analysis, bioterrorism, anthrax
Abstract
We present here a logical progression of probability and risk analysis for adventi-tious events, events whose probability is not well measurably different from zero (WMDZ). We will show that such analy-ses culminate in maximum possible risk (MPR) and, further, that MPR is equiva-lent to a boundary condition for classic sensitivity analysis when applied to events which are not WMDZ. Further, we shall show that use of counter-factual probabilities provides a good estimate of these boundary conditions.
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Proceedings
11th Joint International Conference on Information Sciences
Part of series
Advances in Intelligent Systems Research
Publication Date
December 2008
ISBN
978-90-78677-18-5
ISSN
1951-6851
DOI
https://doi.org/10.2991/jcis.2008.12How to use a DOI?
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license.

Cite this article

TY  - CONF
AU  - T. Taylor
AU  - T. Whalen
AU  - M. Cohen
PY  - 2008/12
DA  - 2008/12
TI  - Application of Sensitivity Analysis, “Worst Case”, and Maximum Possible Risk (MPR) to Adventitious Events
BT  - 11th Joint International Conference on Information Sciences
PB  - Atlantis Press
SN  - 1951-6851
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/jcis.2008.12
DO  - https://doi.org/10.2991/jcis.2008.12
ID  - Taylor2008/12
ER  -