Maximum Possible Risk Modeling

DOI

10.2991/jcis.2008.15How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Possibility, Risk, Counterfactual Conditionals, Counterfactual Assumptions, Biosafety

Abstract

Counterfactual assumptions enable a maximum possible risk analysis of the possibility of an aerosol release of pathogens such as anthrax spores from a biological research laboratory. Eight counter-factual assumptions in conjunction ensure that any actual laboratory accident would pose a risk of exposure smaller than the hypothetical exposure risk generated by the model. The final counter-factual assumption sets an unrealistically low threshold of risk. The inflated risk is still less than the deflated risk threshold, so it is possible to conclude the laboratory is safe without attempting to measure its actual risk or specify an actual threshold of acceptable risk.

Copyright

© 2008, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - M. Schütz
AU  - M. Cohen
AU  - T. Whalen
AU  - T. Taylor
PY  - 2008/12
DA  - 2008/12
TI  - Maximum Possible Risk Modeling
BT  - Proceedings of the 11th Joint Conference on Information Sciences (JCIS 2008)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 88
EP  - 93
SN  - 1951-6851
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/jcis.2008.15
DO  - 10.2991/jcis.2008.15
ID  - Schütz2008/12
ER  -