Possibilistic Risk and Counterfactual Probabilities

DOI

10.2991/jcis.2008.16How to use a DOI?

Keywords

possibility, risk analysis, counterfactuals, laboratory safety

Abstract

Possibility theory is applied to assessing the relative risk associated with very rare, high-consequence hazards. The probability of rare negative events has to be estimated from a few past occurrences that are spread over long exposure periods, with counter- measures added in response to each event to attempt to guard against recurrence. Traditional risk assessments based on conditional probability and statistical expected value are very sensitive to the uncertainty associated with rare events. A new measure of possibility for events whose probability is not well measurably different from zero is proposed and illustrated in the context of possible release of hazardous material from a high containment research laboratory.

Copyright

© 2008, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - T. Whalen
AU  - T. Taylor
AU  - M. Cohen
PY  - 2008/12
DA  - 2008/12
TI  - Possibilistic Risk and Counterfactual Probabilities
BT  - Proceedings of the 11th Joint Conference on Information Sciences (JCIS 2008)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 94
EP  - 99
SN  - 1951-6851
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/jcis.2008.16
DO  - 10.2991/jcis.2008.16
ID  - Whalen2008/12
ER  -