11th Joint International Conference on Information Sciences

Possibilistic Risk and Counterfactual Probabilities

Authors
T. Whalen 0, T. Taylor, M. Cohen
Corresponding Author
T. Whalen
0Georgia State University
Available Online December 2008.
DOI
https://doi.org/10.2991/jcis.2008.16How to use a DOI?
Keywords
possibility, risk analysis, counterfactuals, laboratory safety
Abstract
Possibility theory is applied to assessing the relative risk associated with very rare, high-consequence hazards. The probability of rare negative events has to be estimated from a few past occurrences that are spread over long exposure periods, with counter- measures added in response to each event to attempt to guard against recurrence. Traditional risk assessments based on conditional probability and statistical expected value are very sensitive to the uncertainty associated with rare events. A new measure of possibility for events whose probability is not well measurably different from zero is proposed and illustrated in the context of possible release of hazardous material from a high containment research laboratory.
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Proceedings
11th Joint International Conference on Information Sciences
Part of series
Advances in Intelligent Systems Research
Publication Date
December 2008
ISBN
978-90-78677-18-5
ISSN
1951-6851
DOI
https://doi.org/10.2991/jcis.2008.16How to use a DOI?
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license.

Cite this article

TY  - CONF
AU  - T. Whalen
AU  - T. Taylor
AU  - M. Cohen
PY  - 2008/12
DA  - 2008/12
TI  - Possibilistic Risk and Counterfactual Probabilities
BT  - 11th Joint International Conference on Information Sciences
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 94
EP  - 99
SN  - 1951-6851
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/jcis.2008.16
DO  - https://doi.org/10.2991/jcis.2008.16
ID  - Whalen2008/12
ER  -