Application of ARIMA Model in the Prediction of the Gross Domestic Product
Bing Yang, Chenggang Li, Min Li, Kang Pan, Di Wang
Available Online December 2016.
- 10.2991/mcei-16.2016.257How to use a DOI?
- GDP; ARIMA model; Forecast; Residual
GDP is an important index that is used to reflect the economy development and people's income. This paper chooses the annual data of Chinese GDP from 1978 to 2014 as the research object, and establishes ARIMA (2, 4, 2) model by applying the Eviews6.0 software. Then, the paper applies this model to forecast the GDP of the following five years, and compares the forecast values with the actual values. The result shows that this model is effective to forecast the GDP in a short term. In the end, the GDP of the following year is forecasted.
- © 2017, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
- Open Access
- This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).
Cite this article
TY - CONF AU - Bing Yang AU - Chenggang Li AU - Min Li AU - Kang Pan AU - Di Wang PY - 2016/12 DA - 2016/12 TI - Application of ARIMA Model in the Prediction of the Gross Domestic Product BT - Proceedings of the 2016 6th International Conference on Mechatronics, Computer and Education Informationization (MCEI 2016) PB - Atlantis Press SP - 1258 EP - 1262 SN - 1951-6851 UR - https://doi.org/10.2991/mcei-16.2016.257 DO - 10.2991/mcei-16.2016.257 ID - Yang2016/12 ER -