Application of ARIMA Model in the Prediction of the Gross Domestic Product

DOI

10.2991/mcei-16.2016.257How to use a DOI?

Keywords

GDP; ARIMA model; Forecast; Residual

Abstract

GDP is an important index that is used to reflect the economy development and people's income. This paper chooses the annual data of Chinese GDP from 1978 to 2014 as the research object, and establishes ARIMA (2, 4, 2) model by applying the Eviews6.0 software. Then, the paper applies this model to forecast the GDP of the following five years, and compares the forecast values with the actual values. The result shows that this model is effective to forecast the GDP in a short term. In the end, the GDP of the following year is forecasted.

Copyright

© 2017, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Bing Yang
AU  - Chenggang Li
AU  - Min Li
AU  - Kang Pan
AU  - Di Wang
PY  - 2016/12
DA  - 2016/12
TI  - Application of ARIMA Model in the Prediction of the Gross Domestic Product
BT  - Proceedings of the 2016 6th International Conference on Mechatronics, Computer and Education Informationization (MCEI 2016)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 1258
EP  - 1262
SN  - 1951-6851
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/mcei-16.2016.257
DO  - 10.2991/mcei-16.2016.257
ID  - Yang2016/12
ER  -