Research on Autoregressive Distribution Lag Modeling Method for Power Load Forecasting

DOI

10.2991/mmsta-19.2019.10How to use a DOI?

Keywords

temperature; autoregressive distribution lag Model; load forecasting; stepwise regression method

Abstract

Based on the autoregressive distribution lag model, this paper studies the short-term power load forecasting problem in a certain area of Ningbo in summer. Firstly, the characteristics of time periodicity and temperature sensitivity of power load are analyzed. Secondly, on the basis of this analysis, the autoregressive distribution lag model is proposed, and the stepwise regression algorithm is used to overcome the multicollinearity problem of variables. Finally, the autoregressive distribution lag model method is applied to the practice of Ningbo summer power load forecasting, and the accurate forecasting model is obtained. The average relative error of power load forecasting is controlled within 4%, which verifies the validity and accuracy of the model.

Copyright

© 2019, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Linghua Tong
AU  - Lihua Luo
AU  - Liangzhong Fan
PY  - 2019/12
DA  - 2019/12
TI  - Research on Autoregressive Distribution Lag Modeling Method for Power Load Forecasting
BT  - Proceedings of the 2019 2nd International Conference on Mathematics, Modeling and Simulation Technologies and Applications (MMSTA 2019)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 44
EP  - 47
SN  - 2352-538X
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/mmsta-19.2019.10
DO  - 10.2991/mmsta-19.2019.10
ID  - Tong2019/12
ER  -