Prediction of Future Drought in Shandong Province Under Different RCPs Scenarios
Yongbin Bao, Jiquan Zhang, Ari Guna
Available Online 12 April 2021.
- https://doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.210409.021How to use a DOI?
- Drought, Prediction, RCPs, CMIP5
- Climate change, characterized by rising temperature, aggravating drought and increasing extreme weather events, will greatly threaten the future social and economic development. Therefore, based on CMIP5 data, the future drought of Shandong Province under different RCPs scenarios (rcp4.5 and rcp8.5) was calculated by SPI index, including temporal change trend, mutation analysis and spatial change trend, so as to provide reference for disaster prevention and mitigation. The results showed that ①the Multi-Model Ensemble Mean was better than the single model for the CMIP5 data. ②In temporal, from 2016 to 2099, there was a weak wetting trend under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, which were 0.039/10a and 0.184/10a, respectively. The difference is that drought / wetness occurred alternately under RCP 4.5 scenario, while drought almost continued before 2050s under RCP8.5 scenario, and there was almost no drought after 2050s. Therefore, attention should be paid to flood. It was found that there was no obvious mutation point in RCP4.5 scenario, but a mutation in RCP 8.5 scenario at 2046, with a wetting trend. ③Spatially, the northern and eastern parts of Shandong Province were more wetter under the RCP 4.5 scenario, while the northwest part was wetter under the RCP 8.5 scenario.
- Open Access
- This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license.
Cite this article
TY - CONF AU - Yongbin Bao AU - Jiquan Zhang AU - Ari Guna PY - 2021 DA - 2021/04/12 TI - Prediction of Future Drought in Shandong Province Under Different RCPs Scenarios BT - Proceedings of the 9th Annual Meeting of Risk Analysis Council of China Association for Disaster Prevention (RAC 2020) PB - Atlantis Press SP - 133 EP - 138 SN - 2352-5428 UR - https://doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.210409.021 DO - https://doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.210409.021 ID - Bao2021 ER -