Forecast of China's Future Population under the Universal Two-child Policy

DOI

10.2991/wartia-18.2018.29How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Population structure; Economic growth; Regression analysis; Least squares

Abstract

Firstly, according to the total population of China from 1996 to 2015 collected and sorted, the curve function was fitted using MATLAB tools and the polynomial difference method. According to the function predicted by the fitting function, the population of China in 2016 was 1.769.8 billion under the premise of no open two-child policy. Secondly, the functional relationship between mortality rate and time was obtained by using MATLAB tools and least squares algorithm, logistic model and curve fitting. Therefore the mortality rate in 2016, as well as the future mortality rate of China's population was predicted. Finally, a differential equation model and recursive mode were set up. Under the assumption that the birth rate of approximately equal to 1.2916% per year, generation into the prediction model, it is concluded that under the universal two-child policy in our country in 2016 and the total population of about 1.38242 billion people, the result that tallies with the China's population will reach 1.385 billion in 2016, and its forecast effect is better. At the same time, the annual population of China is predicted for the next ten years.

Copyright

© 2018, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Peiyu Yan
PY  - 2018/09
DA  - 2018/09
TI  - Forecast of China's Future Population under the Universal Two-child Policy
BT  - Proceedings of the 4th Workshop on Advanced Research and Technology in Industry (WARTIA 2018)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 176
EP  - 182
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/wartia-18.2018.29
DO  - 10.2991/wartia-18.2018.29
ID  - Yan2018/09
ER  -