Modelling the economic impact of the tripartite free trade area: Its implications for the economic geography of Southern, Eastern and Northern Africa☆

DOI

10.1016/j.joat.2017.05.003How to use a DOI?

Keywords

F13; F15

Abstract

This study evaluates the economic impact of the proposed COMESA-SADC-EAC Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA) on 26 African countries. It uses the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and database to measure the static effects of the establishment of the TFTA on industrial production, trade flows and consumption in the TFTA. The results indicate a significant increase in intra-regional exports as a result of tariff elimination, boosting intra-regional trade by 29%. Particularly encouraging is the fact that the sectors benefiting most are manufacturing ones, such as light and heavy manufacturing, and processed food. Concerns have been raised that industrial production in the TFTA could concentrate in the countries with highest productivity levels - namely, Egypt and South Africa. Simulation results suggest that these fears are exaggerated, with little evidence of concentration of industries in the larger countries.

Copyright

© 2017 Afreximbank. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Open Access

This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licences/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - JOUR
AU  - Andrew Mold
AU  - Rodgers Mukwaya
PY  - 2017
DA  - 2017/07/08
TI  - Modelling the economic impact of the tripartite free trade area: Its implications for the economic geography of Southern, Eastern and Northern Africa☆
JO  - Journal of African Trade
SP  - 57
EP  - 84
VL  - 3
IS  - 1-2
SN  - 2214-8523
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joat.2017.05.003
DO  - 10.1016/j.joat.2017.05.003
ID  - Mold2017
ER  -