Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health

Volume 5, Issue 4, December 2015, Pages 337 - 346

Analyzing seasonality of tuberculosis across Indian states and union territories

Authors
Pankaj Narulaa, Praveer Sihotaa, Sarita Azada, *, sarita@iitmandi.ac.in, Pietro Liob
aSchool of Basic Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Mandi, Mandi 175001, Himachal Pradesh, India
bComputer Laboratory, William Gates Building 15, JJ Thomson Avenue, Cambridge CB3 0FD, University of Cambridge, UK
*Corresponding author. Tel.: +91 1905 237928.
Corresponding Author
Received 29 November 2014, Revised 4 February 2015, Accepted 6 February 2015, Available Online 18 March 2015.
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jegh.2015.02.004How to use a DOI?
Keywords
Tuberculosis, Seasonality, Poisson regression, Smear positive cases, Temperature
Abstract

A significant seasonal variation in tuberculosis (TB) is observed in north India during 2006–2011, particularly in states like Himachal Pradesh, Haryana and Rajasthan. To quantify the seasonal variation, we measure average amplitude (peak to trough distance) across seasons in smear positive cases of TB and observe that it is maximum for Himachal Pradesh (40.01%) and minimum for Maharashtra (3.87%). In north India, smear positive cases peak in second quarter (April–June) and reach a trough in fourth quarter (October–December), however low seasonal variation is observed in southern region of the country. The significant correlations as 0.64 (p-value < 0.001), 0.54 (p-value < 0.01) and 0.42 (p-value < 0.05) are observed between minimum temperature and seasonality of TB at lag-1 in north, central and northeast India respectively. However, in south India, this correlation is not significant.

Copyright
© 2015 Ministry of Health, Saudi Arabia. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Open Access
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

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Journal
Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health
Volume-Issue
5 - 4
Pages
337 - 346
Publication Date
2015/03/18
ISSN (Online)
2210-6014
ISSN (Print)
2210-6006
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jegh.2015.02.004How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2015 Ministry of Health, Saudi Arabia. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Open Access
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Cite this article

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Pankaj Narula
AU  - Praveer Sihota
AU  - Sarita Azad
AU  - Pietro Lio
PY  - 2015
DA  - 2015/03/18
TI  - Analyzing seasonality of tuberculosis across Indian states and union territories
JO  - Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health
SP  - 337
EP  - 346
VL  - 5
IS  - 4
SN  - 2210-6014
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jegh.2015.02.004
DO  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jegh.2015.02.004
ID  - Narula2015
ER  -