# Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response

Volume 10, Issue 2, August 2020, Pages 64 - 68

# An Analysis Method of Black Swan Event based on Impact-spread Tree

Authors
Xinying 馨营 Liu 刘1, 3, Hang 航 Li 李2, 3, Xiaobing 小兵 Hu 胡2, 3, *
1The Flight Technology College, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China
1飞行技术学院 中国民航大学，天津 300300
2College of Electronic Information and Automation, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China
2电子信息与自动化学院 中国民航大学，天津 300300
3China-France Research Center of Applied Mathematics for ATM, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China
3中法联合空管应用数学研究中心 中国民航大学，天津 300300
*Corresponding author. Email: huxbtg@163.com
Corresponding Author
Xiaobing 小兵 Hu 胡
Received 11 May 2020, Accepted 5 July 2020, Available Online 13 July 2020.
DOI
10.2991/jracr.k.200708.001How to use a DOI?
Keywords
Black swan effect; impact analysis; impact-spread tree; judgment; air crash
Abstract

The black swan event has the characteristics of rarity and serious consequences. At present, the analysis of black swan events is generally preconceived (that is, the event is assumed to be a black swan event, and then the influence of the event is discussed), or whether it is a black swan event is directly judged according to its characteristics. This method of direct judgment by definition is one-sided and inaccurate, which is not conducive to the development and maturity of research on black swan events. Therefore, this paper solved the problem of whether a method can be used to quantitatively determine whether an event can be called a black swan event before it is defined as a black swan event. This paper proposes a set of analysis methods to determine the black swan event by constructing an impact-spread tree. This method first defines the type of event, analyzes the possible impact range of the event, and draws it into a tree structure. Then, according to the development law of the event, analyzes the impact spread relationship between nodes in the tree structure, and establishes the influence diffusion tree of the event. Finally, by analyzing the impact spread ratio of the event, determine whether it is a black swan event. The case study shows that the method of impact-spread tree can effectively distinguish between black swan events and non-black swan events.

Open Access

## 2.1. 黑天鹅事件的定义

1 稀有性+冲击性+事后预测性 Taleb，2007
2 不可能 Paté-Cornell，2011年
3 令人惊讶+极端 Aven，2012
4 不可预测 Masys，2012
5 不可预测+重大 牟善军，2013
6 不可能+存在性 徐会永，2015
7 令人惊讶 Hajikazemi，2016
8 异常值+抓住情绪+广泛接受 Mueller，2013
9 意外性+极端影响+突发 刘霞，2017
10 出乎意料+颠覆性 周敏凯，2017

## 3.3. 判定方法

a(i)=SiS （1）

a(i)=(ωj*Sj)ωj （2）

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Journal
Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response
Volume-Issue
10 - 2
Pages
64 - 68
Publication Date
2020/07/13
ISSN (Online)
2210-8505
ISSN (Print)
2210-8491
DOI
10.2991/jracr.k.200708.001How to use a DOI?
Open Access

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Xinying 馨营 Liu 刘
AU  - Hang 航 Li 李
AU  - Xiaobing 小兵 Hu 胡
PY  - 2020
DA  - 2020/07/13
TI  - An Analysis Method of Black Swan Event based on Impact-spread Tree
JO  - Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response
SP  - 64
EP  - 68
VL  - 10
IS  - 2
SN  - 2210-8505
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/jracr.k.200708.001
DO  - 10.2991/jracr.k.200708.001
ID  - Liu刘2020
ER  -