Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response

Volume 10, Issue 2, August 2020
Research Article

2. Study on Mutation Mechanism of Victim’s Psychological Behavior State after Major Natural Disasters

Xuanhua Xu, Yushi Liu, Zitao Zhang
Pages: 27 - 36
Aiming at the problem of victim’s rational and irrational behavior during recovery stage in major natural disaster, this paper analyzed the victim’s psychological and behavioral characteristics and influencing factors during recovery stage based on lots of literatures and an interview with victims. Besides,...
Research Article

3. Research on the Prevention and Control of COVID-19 Risk in Long-term Care Facilities based on Prospect Theory

Fengying Zhang, Jianhui Kong, Xiaofeng Xie, Kai Xu, Zongfang Zhou
Pages: 37 - 42
In the current complex and uncertainty of the risk of COVID-19 in long-term care facilities, the elderly in the long-term care facilities are at the highest risk of being affected by COVID-19. There is still uncertain relationship between the identification of this risk and the care management, caring...
Research Article

4. Analysis of Death Risk of COVID-19 under Incomplete Information1

Chongfu Huang
Pages: 43 - 53
It is easy to write a story about the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) when everything about COVID-19 is known. It is difficult to analyze the death risks of COVID-19 with a few evidences collected before and at the beginning of the outbreak. In this paper, we suggest a hybrid model to analyze the...
Research Article

5. Patterns of Fatal Explosion Accidents in China

Lei Pang, Zhiwen Zhang, Kai Yang, Pengfei Lv, Siheng Sun
Pages: 54 - 63
Explosion accidents usually lead to serious fatality and disability. To investigate the patterns of Fatal Explosion Accidents (FEA), a database containing 1835 FEA that happened in China during 2001–2018 was built. Statistical analysis was made based on the year, month, time interval of day, day of week,...
Research Article

6. An Analysis Method of Black Swan Event based on Impact-spread Tree

Xinying 馨营 Liu 刘, Hang 航 Li 李, Xiaobing 小兵 Hu 胡
Pages: 64 - 68
The black swan event has the characteristics of rarity and serious consequences. At present, the analysis of black swan events is generally preconceived (that is, the event is assumed to be a black swan event, and then the influence of the event is discussed), or whether it is a black swan event is directly...
Research Article

7. A Sales Forecasting Model for the Consumer Goods with Holiday Effects

Mu Zhang, Xiao-nan Huang, Chang-bing Yang
Pages: 69 - 76
In reality, there are so-called holiday effects in the sales of many consumer goods, and their sales data have the characteristics of double trend change of time series. In view of this, by introducing the seasonal decomposition and ARIMA model, this paper proposes a sales forecasting model for the consumer...