An Analysis Method of Black Swan Event based on Impact-spread Tree
- https://doi.org/10.2991/jracr.k.200708.001How to use a DOI?
- Black swan effect; impact analysis; impact-spread tree; judgment; air crash
The black swan event has the characteristics of rarity and serious consequences. At present, the analysis of black swan events is generally preconceived (that is, the event is assumed to be a black swan event, and then the influence of the event is discussed), or whether it is a black swan event is directly judged according to its characteristics. This method of direct judgment by definition is one-sided and inaccurate, which is not conducive to the development and maturity of research on black swan events. Therefore, this paper solved the problem of whether a method can be used to quantitatively determine whether an event can be called a black swan event before it is defined as a black swan event. This paper proposes a set of analysis methods to determine the black swan event by constructing an impact-spread tree. This method first defines the type of event, analyzes the possible impact range of the event, and draws it into a tree structure. Then, according to the development law of the event, analyzes the impact spread relationship between nodes in the tree structure, and establishes the influence diffusion tree of the event. Finally, by analyzing the impact spread ratio of the event, determine whether it is a black swan event. The case study shows that the method of impact-spread tree can effectively distinguish between black swan events and non-black swan events.
- © 2020 The Authors. Published by Atlantis Press B.V.
- Open Access
- This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC 4.0 license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).
Cite this article
TY - JOUR AU - Xinying 馨营 Liu 刘 AU - Hang 航 Li 李 AU - Xiaobing 小兵 Hu 胡 PY - 2020 DA - 2020/07/13 TI - An Analysis Method of Black Swan Event based on Impact-spread Tree JO - Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response SP - 64 EP - 68 VL - 10 IS - 2 SN - 2210-8505 UR - https://doi.org/10.2991/jracr.k.200708.001 DO - https://doi.org/10.2991/jracr.k.200708.001 ID - Liu刘2020 ER -