Regional Inflation Persistence Analysis: A Case Study in Surabaya

DOI

10.2991/aebmr.k.200606.060How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Surabaya, Persistence, Inflation, Commodity Groups, Goods, Services, hybrid NKPC

Abstract

This study aims to determine the behavior of regional inflation in Surabaya by looking at its persistence, namely the speed of inflation returns to its equilibrium after a shock. Using monthly data on general inflation, commodity groups and commodity goods and services, then the persistency is calculated utilizing Autoregressive Method. Furthermore, inflation cause is estimated by NKPC Hybrid Model. The results showed that the general inflation in Surabaya tends to be persistent as evidenced by the persistence value of 0.98. Whereas commodities with high persistence value are dominated by commodities of volatile food and administered prices.Meanwhile, the cause of the high inflation persistence in Surabaya is produced by a combination of backward-looking inflation expectations and dominated by forward looking inflation expectations.

Copyright

© 2020, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Lia Umi Farida
AU  - Munawar Ismail
AU  - David Kaluge
PY  - 2020
DA  - 2020/06/09
TI  - Regional Inflation Persistence Analysis: A Case Study in Surabaya
BT  - Proceedings of the 23rd Asian Forum of Business Education(AFBE 2019)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 344
EP  - 351
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.200606.060
DO  - 10.2991/aebmr.k.200606.060
ID  - Farida2020
ER  -