Regional Power Generation Prediction Model and Post-Evaluation Based On Coal Production and Economy Status

DOI

10.2991/aiie-15.2015.157How to use a DOI?

Keywords

statistical methods; neural network; DEA; post-evaluation

Abstract

With the deepening of the reform of the electricity market and rapid development of power industry, advancement of economy and power generation is becoming more and more closely related to each other. Balance between supply and demand is always one of the core issues of regional electricity market research. This paper proposes an electricity generation prediction model in power plant combining statistical methods and neural network in order to improve predictive performance. On the basis of power generation influential factors analysis, first we adopt several statistical methods as ADF test, Granger Causality Model, Error Correction Model and Co-integration Test to investigate the relationship between several variables as GDP, industrial structure, technological progress, even the temperature and so on, aiming at the discovery of possible causes that lead to fluctuations of power generation. Then an ingenious predictive model using artificial intelligence method neural network is created in numerical prediction of future amount of electricity generation. At last, efficiency results of both operation scale and technology are given according to data envelopment Analysis (DEA) as post-evaluation. All the data is collected from website of National Bureau of Statistics, with time series in month up to 15 years (1998~2013).This study is of great significance to estimate the status of future electricity generation, and is of huge support to facilitate future intensification and optimization of resource allocation, and enhances operational efficiency.

Copyright

© 2015, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - N.Q. Xiao
AU  - Q.M. Yang
PY  - 2015/07
DA  - 2015/07
TI  - Regional Power Generation Prediction Model and Post-Evaluation Based On Coal Production and Economy Status
BT  - Proceedings of the 2015 International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Industrial Engineering
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 588
EP  - 591
SN  - 1951-6851
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/aiie-15.2015.157
DO  - 10.2991/aiie-15.2015.157
ID  - Xiao2015/07
ER  -