Proceedings of the Asia-Pacific Research in Social Sciences and Humanities Universitas Indonesia Conference (APRISH 2019)

Predicting the Results of the 2019 Indonesian Presidential Election with Google Trends

Analysis of Accuracy, Precision, and Its Opportunity

Authors
Ali Ar Harkan, Eriyanto
Corresponding Author
Ali Ar Harkan
Available Online 31 May 2021.
DOI
https://doi.org/10.2991/assehr.k.210531.001How to use a DOI?
Keywords
Google Trends, Political Choice, Accuracy, precision, 2019 Presidential Election
Abstract

In electoral competitions, voter behavior research is conducted to develop effective campaign strategies, but survey methods tend to be expensive. By contrast, in the internet era where political campaigns evolve by using digital data and channels, Google Trends offers free services that display search interest indexes for certain keywords and topics measured through search volumes on Google search engines over a period of time and certain areas. Thus, Google Trends could be a tool that increases the efficiency of voter behavior research. By using the election real count data released by the General Election Commission on May 21, 2019, this study conducted an accuracy and precision analysis of the Google Trends topic query index that represented presidential candidate number 01 and number 02 in predicting the real count of the two candidates’ votes. The analysis indicated that using Google Trends as a tool to predict the results of the 2019 Indonesian Presidential Election produced imprecise results. However, Google Trends could better predict election outcomes by adding features for sentiment analysis and a more representative understanding of users’ search activity.

Copyright
© 2021, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the Asia-Pacific Research in Social Sciences and Humanities Universitas Indonesia Conference (APRISH 2019)
Series
Advances in Social Science, Education and Humanities Research
Publication Date
31 May 2021
ISBN
978-94-6239-385-1
ISSN
2352-5398
DOI
https://doi.org/10.2991/assehr.k.210531.001How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2021, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

Cite this article

TY  - CONF
AU  - Ali Ar Harkan
AU  - Eriyanto
PY  - 2021
DA  - 2021/05/31
TI  - Predicting the Results of the 2019 Indonesian Presidential Election with Google Trends
BT  - Proceedings of the Asia-Pacific Research in Social Sciences and Humanities Universitas Indonesia Conference (APRISH 2019)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 1
EP  - 9
SN  - 2352-5398
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/assehr.k.210531.001
DO  - https://doi.org/10.2991/assehr.k.210531.001
ID  - Harkan2021
ER  -