An Improved GM (1,1) Model on Initial Value and Its Application on Power Load Forecasting
Authors
Shuangchen Li, Tiantian Wang
Corresponding Author
Shuangchen Li
Available Online May 2015.
- DOI
- 10.2991/asei-15.2015.402How to use a DOI?
- Keywords
- GM (1,1) model; Power load forecasting; residual sum of squares;Initial value.
- Abstract
When Calculating the parameter c of differential equations,traditional GM(1,1) model considers only the of 1-AGO,the oldest history data ,resulting loss of new information to some extent.This paper gives a new way to calculate the initial value.The new model firstly establishes the function of residual sum of squares.Then it solves the equation and gives expression of parameter c. Finally,it uses the new ‘c’ and obtains the new formula of Predictive value.Through the example analysis,this paper proves that improved prediction model can improve prediction precision.
- Copyright
- © 2015, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
- Open Access
- This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).
Cite this article
TY - CONF AU - Shuangchen Li AU - Tiantian Wang PY - 2015/05 DA - 2015/05 TI - An Improved GM (1,1) Model on Initial Value and Its Application on Power Load Forecasting BT - Proceedings of the 2015 International conference on Applied Science and Engineering Innovation PB - Atlantis Press SP - 2044 EP - 2049 SN - 2352-5401 UR - https://doi.org/10.2991/asei-15.2015.402 DO - 10.2991/asei-15.2015.402 ID - Li2015/05 ER -